Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on July 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x894090eceb14ca06533165051f9e3dcf3e6f797fc0b1ba6ee7af2822102650ae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,853
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,861
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,853 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 69c | 2,667$1,840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$826.64 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed No | 71c | 2,123$1,497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,496.72 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 31c | 1,000$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed No | 29c | 800.43$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.35 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 30c | 596.87$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.87 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 4c | 562.86$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.43 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0050…cad1backed Yes | 24c | 557.77$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.18 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe008…f7d3backed No | 31c | 320$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 134 | 23.1%31 W · 103 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 28c | 300$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 69c | 300$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 6c | 240$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 24c | 210$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.6 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 42c | 166.19$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.56 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked No | 35c | 166.14$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.25 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed No | 30c | 165.37$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.1 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec47…0c22backed No | 31c | 160$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 182 | 22%40 W · 142 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed No | 62c | 155$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.3 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed Yes | 30c | 150$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.26 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed62…c51dbacked Yes | 44c | 144.64$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.8 | 346 | 28.9%100 W · 246 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 21c | 140.32$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.49 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b88…a191backed No | 11c | 132$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2250…4cd7backed No | 31c | 129.16$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.04 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed Yes | 77c | 126$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.61 | 264 | 41.3%109 W · 155 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4207…b81bbacked Yes | 22c | 107.08$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +4.0wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +47%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 71c | 101$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.22 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc4…f3dabacked No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…33a5backed Yes | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 226 | 45.1%102 W · 124 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9448…b72ebacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa754…ec4bbacked No | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 74 | 13.5%10 W · 64 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 61c | 98.17$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.72 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 22c | 95.86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.81 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 17c | 82.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.45 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e04…80babacked No | 21c | 79.32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 31c | 73.48$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.98 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd2…c304backed No | 23c | 72.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 160 | 38.8%62 W · 98 L | +18.0wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +123.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 41c | 72.24$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.26 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed Yes | 31c | 70.32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.6 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 48c | 62$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.48 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed Yes | 27c | 60$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.8 | 173 | 24.3%42 W · 131 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 23c | 54.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.84 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 23c | 52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.04 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 76c | 51.93$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.62 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 45c | 51.33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.48 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d02…8c5dbacked No | 71c | 50.01$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.31 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a68…edd3backed Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 182 | 35.2%64 W · 118 L | -14.0wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6a…3d1ebacked No | 31c | 49.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1610…f68dbacked No | 31c | 48.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fd…e7dcbacked No | 31c | 46.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5c…81a3backed No | 31c | 43.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 24c | 42.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 75c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 72c | 31.87$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e3a…258ebacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.37per pick | 57cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a0d…0d74backed No | 72c | 18.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 66c | 16.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 68c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on July 4?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on July 4?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on July 4?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on July 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.