Champions League · resolved market
Arsenal FC leading at halftime?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x894783b1e086e8d33686edc1e595ff591894ef53a62bc30aa3dd761b388d55ce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,999
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,063
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,999 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3e85…9b0bbacked Yes | 48c | 4,149$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,148.58 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +77.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked No | 68c | 2,060$1,407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,406.98 | 153 | 49.7%76 W · 77 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 69c | 1,624$1,124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,124.23 | 1,994 | 43.9%875 W · 1,119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa383…a2f0backed No | 61c | 887.07$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.74 | 114 | 50.9%58 W · 56 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e82…af92backed No | 71c | 864.49$613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$613.13 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 67c | 611.93$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.13 | 607 | 48.4%294 W · 313 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff4…d735backed No | 17c | 580$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.88 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +3.2wins | +0.20per pick | 18cpaid | +118.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4a07…55d4backed Yes | 31c | 534.99$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.14 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 10cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02d4…d26cbacked Yes | 31c | 520$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.8 | 98 | 24.5%24 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 51c | 477.82$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.13 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c0…19bdbacked Yes | 31c | 448.32$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.83 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8f…d0e4backed No | 21c | 432.93$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3e…37efbacked No | 6c | 376.22$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.81 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked No | 69c | 362.54$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.12 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +6.2wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe720…0f1cbacked No | 71c | 281.69$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 66cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17fa…ba60backed Yes | 45c | 273.19$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.19 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 29cpaid | +225.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa79d…ee14backed Yes | 38c | 265.16$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.35 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Yes | 48c | 260.63$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.19 | 88 | 46.6%41 W · 47 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 29c | 255.66$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.37 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d61…2641backed Yes | 20c | 244.24$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.24 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked No | 74c | 203.24$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.71 | 92 | 62%57 W · 35 L | +9.7wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 66c | 189$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.74 | 403 | 50.9%205 W · 198 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 66c | 189$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.74 | 502 | 47.2%237 W · 265 L | -8.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 55c | 173.86$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.01 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6797…2bc2backed Yes | 24c | 168$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +320%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d2…7c0dbacked Yes | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.29 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf26f…8f93backed No | 11c | 160$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 12cpaid | +189.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d5…191abacked Yes | 31c | 113.87$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.87 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +77.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…67efbacked Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a19…9db9backed Yes | 31c | 96.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.77 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc0…e57dbacked Yes | 28c | 89.29$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.29 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ae6…269dbacked Yes | 31c | 77.42$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fdb…68dabacked Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.52 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x656a…1be9backed Yes | 33c | 61.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.18 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecda…6f0abacked Yes | 29c | 60$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.6 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 213 | 54%115 W · 98 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eab…aa00backed Yes | 31c | 48.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.97 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8849…9a83backed No | 75c | 42.67$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 32c | 41.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 886 | 31.7%281 W · 605 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee92…7ec3backed Yes | 60c | 36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x337e…a581backed Yes | 30c | 34.77$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.34 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +150%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 29c | 34.49$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.49 | 142 | 20.4%29 W · 113 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1d…43debacked No | 70c | 33.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.33 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 67c | 31.8$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 650 | 50.2%326 W · 324 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed No | 69c | 28.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked No | 73c | 26.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…99dbbacked Yes | 57c | 20.59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd78e…6421backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -3.1wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arsenal FC leading at halftime?this page
- Club Atlético de Madrid leading at halftime?No won
- Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: Draw at halftime?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.