Champions League · resolved market
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: Draw at halftime?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb5108e385d91bc5caedfd5c9460ed3cd7f5bfaa4ec10fe0f88638b605725db47
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,878
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,108
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,878 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 51c | 2,499$1,277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,221.93 | 1,994 | 43.9%875 W · 1,119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4cd…a98dbacked Yes | 47c | 2,135$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d22…4b50backed Yes | 52c | 2,086$1,083 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,083.14 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa383…a2f0backed No | 44c | 1,042$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580.02 | 114 | 50.9%58 W · 56 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6945…873dbacked Yes | 47c | 640.43$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1065…6218backed No | 55c | 534.27$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.42 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 52c | 506.2$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.73 | 607 | 48.4%294 W · 313 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 57c | 445.32$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.32 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked No | 44c | 417.12$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.75 | 92 | 62%57 W · 35 L | +9.7wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd466…8f57backed Yes | 46c | 336.96$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4912…b76fbacked No | 55c | 332.82$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.77 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3e…37efbacked No | 48c | 300.74$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.63 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc701…33c1backed Yes | 33c | 252.49$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.51 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb002…103dbacked Yes | 45c | 250$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x214a…408abacked Yes | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd496…4108backed Yes | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +81.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf375…f105backed Yes | 47c | 211.7$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd66b…1220backed Yes | 48c | 208.11$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11f0…890dbacked Yes | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 50c | 186.04$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.86 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2080…6d80backed No | 15c | 166.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.85per pick | 15cpaid | +566.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 46c | 165$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.9 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 53c | 156.04$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.38 | 403 | 50.9%205 W · 198 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 54c | 135$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.1 | 601 | 36.9%222 W · 379 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39e2…d3babacked Yes | 50c | 128.2$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe240…20fbbacked Yes | 74c | 108.76$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e0f…c18cbacked Yes | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d4b…a05dbacked Yes | 80c | 101.06$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.85 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 53c | 100.62$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.29 | 650 | 50.2%326 W · 324 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed No | 53c | 93.47$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.93 | 226 | 47.3%107 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf753…4972backed Yes | 29c | 81.25$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.86 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Yes | 13c | 80.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 88 | 46.6%41 W · 47 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 53c | 78.79$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.03 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1d…43debacked No | 54c | 77.09$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.48 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c7…8cdabacked Yes | 66c | 74.24$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d61…2641backed Yes | 76c | 66.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Yes | 46c | 66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.36 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x353c…01d9backed Yes | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60a5…f52ebacked Yes | 46c | 64.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1020…580ebacked No | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd104…7c02backed Yes | 59c | 59.02$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 81 | 42%34 W · 47 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa24f…7c58backed Yes | 53c | 56.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -4.2wins | -0.42per pick | 62cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8968…c3c1backed No | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed No | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed No | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 213 | 54%115 W · 98 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d38…6f08backed No | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf504…132ebacked No | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf2…31f0backed Yes | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked No | 53c | 41.81$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.53 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +6.2wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x37e5…7593backed Yes | 47c | 41.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 34c | 40.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.73 | 147 | 36.1%53 W · 94 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -23%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed No | 30c | 39.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.49 | 142 | 20.4%29 W · 113 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Yes | 45c | 37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 502 | 47.2%237 W · 265 L | -8.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1174…059abacked Yes | 65c | 34.19$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa295…ee74backed Yes | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6079…81c6backed Yes | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 100 | 49%49 W · 51 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd671…634cbacked Yes | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +73.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecda…6f0abacked No | 53c | 31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked No | 48c | 30.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.67 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…b9d4backed Yes | 68c | 29.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +150%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a64…535bbacked Yes | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b74…cbaebacked Yes | 53c | 24.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 46c | 24.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 886 | 31.7%281 W · 605 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1320…9388backed Yes | 52c | 24.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb10f…56f4backed Yes | 47c | 21.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: Draw at halftime?this page
- Arsenal FC leading at halftime?Yes won
- Club Atlético de Madrid leading at halftime?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.