Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will NK Aluminij vs. FC Sheriff Tiraspol end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8947ec20fab025d64b8c9e4bf363adb1632f822422e1a8f9abbb3534e38ba247
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,781
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,669
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,781 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 77c | 988.97$762 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.66 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 21c | 882.99$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.72 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed No | 75c | 369.98$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.19 | 380 | 47.4%180 W · 200 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3790…5e8bbacked Yes | 30c | 340$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 29c | 220$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.8 | 1,114 | 35.8%399 W · 715 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x191f…4a8dbacked No | 70c | 155.51$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.65 | 174 | 46%80 W · 94 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 69c | 122.66$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.92 | 969 | 47.5%460 W · 509 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 28c | 115.25$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.27 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3995…f71dbacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +3.3wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed No | 69c | 90.32$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 200 | 50%100 W · 100 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…5d07backed Yes | 29c | 82$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 351 | 46.2%162 W · 189 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3735…1525backed No | 77c | 78.47$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.03 | 99 | 49.5%49 W · 50 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9e…a24bbacked Yes | 20c | 60.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 156 | 28.2%44 W · 112 L | -15.7wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…10d9backed No | 72c | 41.84$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | +7.3wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 71c | 28.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 880 | 48.2%424 W · 456 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked No | 70c | 27.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 973 | 46%448 W · 525 L | -4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed No | 71c | 23.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 441 | 56%247 W · 194 L | +22.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 77c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 152 | 40.8%62 W · 90 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 73c | 21.95$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.02 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb5…7ce9backed No | 80c | 21.37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8859…89d6backed No | 71c | 19.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed No | 71c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 172 | 33.7%58 W · 114 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will NK Aluminij vs. FC Sheriff Tiraspol end in a draw?this page
- Will FC Sheriff Tiraspol win on 2026-07-16?Yes won
- Will NK Aluminij win on 2026-07-16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.