WNBA · resolved market
PortlandFire vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 167.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8955e06aad3d0502305729eb8887558b537f8f5d2211c8f15b8f3e1afdc6695c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,521
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,199
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,521 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9c3c…e8c9backed Over | 51c | 9,804$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,803.91 | 143 | 53.8%77 W · 66 L | +7.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ef…5a1cbacked Under | 49c | 5,771$2,828 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,827.88 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bcf…c767backed Under | 49c | 1,990$975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$975.13 | 91 | 40.7%37 W · 54 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea48…c596backed Under | 49c | 1,680$823 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$823.2 | 115 | 40%46 W · 69 L | -10.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Under | 51c | 870.88$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.15 | 179 | 46.4%83 W · 96 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Over | 51c | 784.14$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.19 | 237 | 46.4%110 W · 127 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 49c | 730.02$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.65 | 837 | 48.1%403 W · 434 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x911b…344fbacked Over | 49c | 595.88$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.9 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 49c | 517.87$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.25 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed Over | 69c | 434.75$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.77 | 60 | 66.7%40 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 50c | 366.48$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.24 | 922 | 48.8%450 W · 472 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Under | 51c | 339.5$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.15 | 327 | 43.7%143 W · 184 L | -23.7wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Under | 51c | 294.11$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.99 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -8.2wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 50c | 284.28$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.5 | 785 | 48.8%383 W · 402 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 51c | 199.99$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.99 | 323 | 46.7%151 W · 172 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 31c | 190.89$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.48 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…7db2backed Under | 50c | 190.12$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 45c | 159.54$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.79 | 610 | 42.5%259 W · 351 L | -31.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Over | 47c | 146.81$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.81 | 329 | 48.6%160 W · 169 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde5c…a04ebacked Under | 49c | 143.28$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -57%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Over | 50c | 111.53$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.09 | 224 | 46%103 W · 121 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb986…0023backed Over | 52c | 108.98$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3c…9320backed Over | 52c | 105.77$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.77 | 81 | 54.3%44 W · 37 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae8e…08f9backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x186a…559dbacked Under | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa61…7f3bbacked Over | 52c | 90$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 285 | 58.6%167 W · 118 L | +20.0wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf4d…a9f3backed Under | 51c | 87.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3242…0e0bbacked Under | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 50c | 67.97$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.26 | 641 | 52%333 W · 308 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9565…ec9abacked Under | 39c | 45.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.61 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -8.4wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 49c | 39.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.38 | 462 | 47%217 W · 245 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed Under | 51c | 37.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 260 | 54.6%142 W · 118 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x997c…51f3backed Under | 39c | 30.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -4.8wins | -0.32per pick | 45cpaid | -80.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Over | 51c | 30.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 159 | 38.4%61 W · 98 L | -16.5wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1715…a049backed Over | 51c | 29.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 112 | 42.9%48 W · 64 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 48c | 25.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.08 | 262 | 47.7%125 W · 137 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe561…dfb8backed Under | 52c | 24.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 56c | 22.73$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 74 | 51.4%38 W · 36 L | +8.2wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xadcb…a546backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- PortlandFire vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 167.5this page
- PortlandFire vs. Connecticut SunConnecticut Sun won
- PortlandFire vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 166.5Over won
- PortlandFire vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 168.5Over won
- Spread: Connecticut Sun (-2.5)Connecticut Sun won
- Spread: PortlandFire (-1.5)Connecticut Sun won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.