WNBA · resolved market
PortlandFire vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 168.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd2e05f23de69d05610040e0d6bd82c94b4696b84d48b2afbdde5656137f041bb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,310
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,814
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,310 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9c3c…e8c9backed Over | 48c | 10,417$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,416.64 | 143 | 53.8%77 W · 66 L | +7.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd86e…45cebacked Under | 54c | 6,357$3,414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,414.07 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bcf…c767backed Under | 52c | 3,756$1,953 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,953.12 | 91 | 40.7%37 W · 54 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ef…5a1cbacked Under | 52c | 1,878$977 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$976.54 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 46c | 1,658$763 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$895.45 | 893 | 49.4%441 W · 452 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked Under | 50c | 1,404$702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$702 | 94 | 45.7%43 W · 51 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 47c | 1,370$649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$721.55 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03c5…5f61backed Over | 50c | 1,045$523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.56 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Under | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 105 | 48.6%51 W · 54 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 64c | 721.33$461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.72 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Under | 52c | 613.38$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.96 | 327 | 43.7%143 W · 184 L | -23.7wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Under | 52c | 519$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.88 | 361 | 54%195 W · 166 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Under | 52c | 458.15$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.24 | 386 | 45.9%177 W · 209 L | -15.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed Over | 68c | 444.41$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.21 | 60 | 66.7%40 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 46c | 408.69$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.69 | 411 | 45.7%188 W · 223 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Under | 40c | 375$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -8.2wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9714…5152backed Over | 49c | 302.99$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.53 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -7.5wins | -0.17per pick | 49cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a0…fb89backed Over | 55c | 300$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…4b3cbacked Under | 31c | 299.98$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.99 | 107 | 49.5%53 W · 54 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 48c | 250$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 323 | 46.7%151 W · 172 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 51c | 243.16$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.08 | 837 | 48.1%403 W · 434 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 59c | 235.82$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.35 | 749 | 42.3%317 W · 432 L | -21.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 48c | 204.35$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.26 | 641 | 52%333 W · 308 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe8…1141backed Over | 50c | 189.6$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.8 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51da…a701backed Over | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 161 | 53.4%86 W · 75 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 45c | 174.8$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.66 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Under | 45c | 168.12$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.36 | 188 | 50%94 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 50c | 159.68$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.84 | 149 | 47.7%71 W · 78 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…420bbacked Under | 20c | 139.27$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.68 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x943b…e35ebacked Under | 40c | 124.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Under | 51c | 108.5$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.66 | 224 | 46%103 W · 121 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 43c | 98.49$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.35 | 785 | 48.8%383 W · 402 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x186a…559dbacked Under | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01ee…fc4bbacked Under | 54c | 96.02$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.85 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a70…76b5backed Over | 54c | 92.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.52 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | -6.6wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -24%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa807…cc2ebacked Over | 50c | 80.42$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.21 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 211 | 50.2%106 W · 105 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa61…7f3bbacked Over | 50c | 72$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 285 | 58.6%167 W · 118 L | +20.0wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 39c | 63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 149 | 36.9%55 W · 94 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Under | 52c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 173 | 50.3%87 W · 86 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…ad0fbacked Under | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9884…85aabacked Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Over | 51c | 40.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.65 | 426 | 49.3%210 W · 216 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x997c…51f3backed Under | 42c | 40.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -4.8wins | -0.32per pick | 45cpaid | -80.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Under | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 179 | 46.4%83 W · 96 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9565…ec9abacked Over | 79c | 37.64$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -8.4wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1715…a049backed Over | 48c | 29.83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.59 | 112 | 42.9%48 W · 64 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Under | 45c | 26.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 224 | 40.2%90 W · 134 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Over | 59c | 24.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.97 | 246 | 56.5%139 W · 107 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 74 | 51.4%38 W · 36 L | +8.2wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- PortlandFire vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 168.5this page
- PortlandFire vs. Connecticut SunConnecticut Sun won
- PortlandFire vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 166.5Over won
- PortlandFire vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 167.5Over won
- Spread: Connecticut Sun (-2.5)Connecticut Sun won
- Spread: PortlandFire (-1.5)Connecticut Sun won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.