WNBA · resolved market
Spread: PortlandFire (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x73f92914420dc7611b47a43ed8b3e4982827ee2d4f7509ab178849c575a0bd42
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Connecticut Sunof PortlandFire, Connecticut Sun
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,059
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,282
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,059 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Connecticut Sun | 53c | 2,423$1,284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,138.81 | 367 | 54%198 W · 169 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0467…fb2ebacked PortlandFire | 47c | 2,393$1,125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,124.71 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Connecticut Sun | 51c | 2,213$1,131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,081.08 | 300 | 54%162 W · 138 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1316…48a4backed PortlandFire | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad1…9198backed PortlandFire | 50c | 1,153$577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$576.57 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe8…2cbabacked Connecticut Sun | 50c | 790$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaea1…9569backed Connecticut Sun | 49c | 575.11$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed PortlandFire | 50c | 456.44$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.99 | 859 | 48.4%416 W · 443 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked PortlandFire | 48c | 250$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 333 | 47.7%159 W · 174 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x237f…e76ebacked PortlandFire | 45c | 227.23$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.25 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | -8.0wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed PortlandFire | 47c | 209.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.59 | 171 | 43.9%75 W · 96 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8987…02f3backed PortlandFire | 51c | 199.25$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.62 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81a9…df08backed Connecticut Sun | 52c | 156.05$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.9 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -21%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x461c…f74bbacked Connecticut Sun | 53c | 141.51$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.51 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed PortlandFire | 51c | 141.18$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8920…9c0cbacked PortlandFire | 12c | 137.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf39d…aa9dbacked PortlandFire | 43c | 130.91$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.39 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed PortlandFire | 47c | 114.5$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.86 | 159 | 38.4%61 W · 98 L | -16.5wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Connecticut Sun | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 402 | 47.3%190 W · 212 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Connecticut Sun | 54c | 93.86$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.97 | 1,787 | 51.7%924 W · 863 L | +54.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfddc…931abacked Connecticut Sun | 52c | 93.13$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.7 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Connecticut Sun | 52c | 90.24$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.32 | 796 | 48.7%388 W · 408 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed PortlandFire | 49c | 81$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.52 | 248 | 47.6%118 W · 130 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd6b…e0f3backed Connecticut Sun | 54c | 79.51$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.97 | 43 | 69.8%30 W · 13 L | +7.8wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Connecticut Sun | 53c | 77.23$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.3 | 327 | 43.7%143 W · 184 L | -23.7wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed PortlandFire | 47c | 69.2$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.62 | 224 | 46%103 W · 121 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1715…a049backed PortlandFire | 46c | 67.29$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.22 | 123 | 43.9%54 W · 69 L | -6.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Connecticut Sun | 51c | 65.92$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.3 | 932 | 48.8%455 W · 477 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed Connecticut Sun | 79c | 63.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 123 | 55.3%68 W · 55 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed PortlandFire | 48c | 61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.57 | 94 | 30.9%29 W · 65 L | -9.6wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed PortlandFire | 43c | 58.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 104 | 53.8%56 W · 48 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Connecticut Sun | 56c | 49.42$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.63 | 1,632 | 50.2%819 W · 813 L | +37.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed PortlandFire | 50c | 48.14$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.17 | 427 | 49.4%211 W · 216 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Connecticut Sun | 74c | 34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 248 | 52.4%130 W · 118 L | +10.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked PortlandFire | 48c | 29.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 242 | 55.4%134 W · 108 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1957…0e20backed PortlandFire | 47c | 29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ece…1949backed Connecticut Sun | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3637…21a4backed PortlandFire | 49c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42a1…a8e9backed PortlandFire | 48c | 24.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9565…ec9abacked Connecticut Sun | 57c | 21.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -8.4wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1573…a727backed Connecticut Sun | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Connecticut Sun | 52c | 19.85$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 627 | 46.9%294 W · 333 L | -19.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: PortlandFire (-1.5)this page
- PortlandFire vs. Connecticut SunConnecticut Sun won
- PortlandFire vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 166.5Over won
- PortlandFire vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 167.5Over won
- PortlandFire vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 168.5Over won
- Spread: Connecticut Sun (-2.5)Connecticut Sun won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.