MLB · resolved market
Mariners vs. Astros
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x89783fe11b798d17ae545f2d7425881facc360eee8698fd7f69515b472b01895
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Marinersof Mariners, Astros
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,813
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,570
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,813 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Astros | 55c | 20,022$10,997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,997 | 279 | 48.4%135 W · 144 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Mariners | 45c | 15,892$7,151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,740.64 | 418 | 50%209 W · 209 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Mariners | 57c | 3,378$1,929 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,448.87 | 867 | 51.8%449 W · 418 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Astros | 46c | 3,341$1,531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,530.96 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Mariners | 45c | 3,281$1,486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,795.58 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Astros | 53c | 3,243$1,729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,728.53 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Mariners | 47c | 2,959$1,388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,571.26 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8511…4a6bbacked Mariners | 48c | 1,878$910 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$967.69 | 436 | 54.8%239 W · 197 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…ffc7backed Mariners | 46c | 980$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$529.2 | 885 | 49.7%440 W · 445 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Mariners | 46c | 908.54$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.2 | 133 | 53.4%71 W · 62 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45ad…7f76backed Astros | 54c | 871$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.34 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e9…0501backed Mariners | 46c | 800$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe544…3cfcbacked Astros | 52c | 764.15$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…d0e5backed Astros | 52c | 735.62$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386 | 333 | 49.5%165 W · 168 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Astros | 53c | 650.61$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.82 | 764 | 56%428 W · 336 L | +32.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…8470backed Mariners | 34c | 584.78$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.78 | 205 | 23.4%48 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58db…ea03backed Mariners | 37c | 543.09$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.09 | 123 | 47.2%58 W · 65 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed Astros | 10c | 524.9$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.49 | 1,180 | 7.2%85 W · 1,095 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x417e…626cbacked Astros | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Mariners | 48c | 500$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 932 | 40.5%377 W · 555 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed Mariners | 51c | 401.6$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.14 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfde0…c21cbacked Astros | 65c | 377.54$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.51 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Astros | 63c | 354.65$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.18 | 1,530 | 50.5%772 W · 758 L | +20.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Mariners | 58c | 312.98$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.78 | 979 | 50.2%491 W · 488 L | +49.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x085d…54e8backed Mariners | 34c | 299.09$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Mariners | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Mariners | 47c | 212.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.88 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Mariners | 61c | 210.8$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.93 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1208…0160backed Astros | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 328 | 32.3%106 W · 222 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb26…94ddbacked Astros | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 123 | 14.6%18 W · 105 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +83.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb58d…818ebacked Astros | 39c | 193$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.54 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…f8edbacked Astros | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Astros | 64c | 186.75$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.05 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0912…5739backed Astros | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49f7…046bbacked Mariners | 46c | 181.3$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.9 | 237 | 53.2%126 W · 111 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Mariners | 45c | 175.82$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.7 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Astros | 29c | 137$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.68 | 1,510 | 39%589 W · 921 L | -16.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Mariners | 45c | 136$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.8 | 519 | 55.3%287 W · 232 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked Astros | 53c | 125$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.25 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | -7.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4472…a648backed Mariners | 48c | 112.5$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.5 | 999 | 51%509 W · 490 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddda…328bbacked Mariners | 47c | 111.38$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.03 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +89.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…d681backed Mariners | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 743 | 56.9%423 W · 320 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x399d…01dabacked Mariners | 44c | 93.48$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.35 | 117 | 57.3%67 W · 50 L | +9.5wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d6d…aeb9backed Astros | 47c | 90$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.3 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19e5…6b62backed Astros | 56c | 81.13$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.43 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Mariners | 46c | 80$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 494 | 50%247 W · 247 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Mariners | 48c | 72.92$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.92 | 784 | 54.5%427 W · 357 L | +19.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76c8…ba09backed Astros | 27c | 72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 179 | 27.9%50 W · 129 L | -15.3wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x95ec…4b7ebacked Astros | 42c | 61.9$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 387 | 43.2%167 W · 220 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9228…e41abacked Mariners | 43c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 177 | 32.8%58 W · 119 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Mariners | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.35 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd420…df90backed Astros | 56c | 49.15$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.52 | 84 | 51.2%43 W · 41 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4010…9236backed Astros | 55c | 46.49$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.57 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -4.2wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Mariners | 47c | 45.67$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.31 | 850 | 47.4%403 W · 447 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Astros | 52c | 43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.36 | 1,151 | 49.2%566 W · 585 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Astros | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 417 | 51.3%214 W · 203 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc811…a5b9backed Mariners | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 84 | 39.3%33 W · 51 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…23f5backed Astros | 55c | 38.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2920…80bebacked Astros | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 238 | 52.9%126 W · 112 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a4d…9871backed Astros | 53c | 32.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -51%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Mariners | 47c | 32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.96 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3382…dcfbbacked Mariners | 48c | 31.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.58 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Mariners | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 382 | 45.5%174 W · 208 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcab9…b983backed Astros | 55c | 29.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf292…bb14backed Mariners | 48c | 29.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.43 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedd3…653bbacked Mariners | 48c | 29.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.31 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05a4…1e85backed Mariners | 61c | 27.53$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 806 | 80%645 W · 161 L | +173.6wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8a9f…3cc5backed Astros | 54c | 26.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +18%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd06c…22ffbacked Astros | 54c | 26.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa72b…e180backed Astros | 54c | 25.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +3.4wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd523…0aa4backed Astros | 55c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 1,293 | 46.6%603 W · 690 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ffe…f8f5backed Mariners | 47c | 24.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…e02dbacked Astros | 53c | 24.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 57cpaid | -34%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6d…5c60backed Mariners | 48c | 22.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.86 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1bee…72c4backed Mariners | 48c | 22.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30a1…a7c6backed Mariners | 48c | 21.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.42 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b9a…a73dbacked Astros | 54c | 21.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +4.6wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xce7c…163abacked Astros | 55c | 19.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99e8…45c4backed Astros | 55c | 18.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.