Commodities · resolved market
Will Gold hit $4000 by December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8988a98b921cf560320798d9e8e353fcf554b7f8f10acb9bc2a580be2b784bf4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,106
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,683
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,106 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 0c | 5,759$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.61 | 1,032 | 9.3%96 W · 936 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x668d…97d2backed Yes | 57c | 1,155$656 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.52 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed No | 39c | 1,098$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +143.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf88…11a8backed Yes | 64c | 993.72$636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.7 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x013d…3e88backed No | 16c | 990$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.18 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ff3…d376backed No | 21c | 695.15$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed No | 3c | 500$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +5.8wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3338…7624backed No | 44c | 500$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa08b…77b0backed No | 21c | 484.31$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.35 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e49…0b46backed Yes | 67c | 477.79$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.79 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 5c | 476.09$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.19 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -34%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Yes | 56c | 384.66$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd17d…d0eebacked No | 30c | 340$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf7…65d9backed No | 36c | 299.98$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.44 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…ab3ebacked No | 41c | 263.85$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 36cpaid | +110.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9567…e505backed No | 24c | 260$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.8 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed No | 46c | 221.02$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a86…8bd6backed Yes | 61c | 183.25$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 58c | 173.71$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.71 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5903…f218backed No | 23c | 140.37$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.28 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03c8…0e01backed Yes | 45c | 109.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.5 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +3.6wins | +0.44per pick | 18cpaid | +296.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6684…95d1backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 19 | 84.2%16 W · 3 L | +4.4wins | +0.23per pick | 61cpaid | +44%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0a07…05c1backed No | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…57febacked No | 44c | 99.97$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x526e…3bd0backed Yes | 73c | 97.82$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 11c | 90.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +41%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56a1…7b89backed Yes | 73c | 89.32$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.32 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56f8…4910backed Yes | 60c | 66.39$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda9c…3fddbacked Yes | 76c | 65.77$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…0e07backed No | 29c | 52.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb39…7cdbbacked No | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed No | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c0f…0f39backed No | 55c | 47.27$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19dc…ec03backed No | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd13d…12a5backed Yes | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2e…4d83backed No | 44c | 34.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x527f…8245backed Yes | 70c | 29.86$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda23…080ebacked Yes | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d65…c8cebacked Yes | 70c | 28.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd883…4fd7backed No | 41c | 25.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec76…f9f1backed Yes | 58c | 19.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +71.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81e0…0f9cbacked No | 69c | 15.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gold hit $4000 by December 31?this page
- Will Gold hit $4000 by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Gold hit $4000 by March 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.