Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x89a05bb7cba244812075d937ad30b0a2018305892c8531f09cfa1ac1bb4aecad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Xtreme Gamingof Team Yandex, Xtreme Gaming
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $89,773
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $118,338
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $89,773 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xac0d…b006backed Team Yandex | 56c | 24,113$13,546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,545.51 | 106 | 61.3%65 W · 41 L | +10.4wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf8a9…3f60backed Team Yandex | 1c | 16,480$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.51 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b37…91b0backed Xtreme Gaming | 47c | 5,323$2,502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,821.11 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b5c…99e1backed Xtreme Gaming | 39c | 5,027$1,961 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,066.47 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5388…4d5abacked Xtreme Gaming | 40c | 4,000$1,603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,396.95 | 218 | 47.2%103 W · 115 L | +16.5wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Xtreme Gaming | 43c | 4,000$1,716 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,284 | 557 | 51.7%288 W · 269 L | +16.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb569…5695backed Xtreme Gaming | 71c | 3,938$2,785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,152.94 | 190 | 47.9%91 W · 99 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d54…9277backed Xtreme Gaming | 47c | 2,128$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,127.66 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Team Yandex | 19c | 2,085$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.54 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked Xtreme Gaming | 40c | 1,651$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$991.23 | 858 | 51.3%440 W · 418 L | +30.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8245…4f87backed Team Yandex | 61c | 1,500$915 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$915 | 62 | 61.3%38 W · 24 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2d…2b35backed Team Yandex | 62c | 1,300$806 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$805.99 | 536 | 52.6%282 W · 254 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacf6…41fcbacked Xtreme Gaming | 40c | 1,263$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$762.82 | 606 | 46.9%284 W · 322 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed Team Yandex | 41c | 1,228$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.98 | 804 | 43.9%353 W · 451 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3103…d804backed Team Yandex | 10c | 1,200$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 86 | 27.9%24 W · 62 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec61…4a2ebacked Xtreme Gaming | 78c | 1,002$781 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.35 | 109 | 41.3%45 W · 64 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bd5…81b0backed Team Yandex | 18c | 987.06$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.1 | 76 | 30.3%23 W · 53 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…f071backed Xtreme Gaming | 66c | 820.29$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.74 | 344 | 68.9%237 W · 107 L | +26.3wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Team Yandex | 16c | 813.15$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.16 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdab0…2fe9backed Xtreme Gaming | 50c | 792.16$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.16 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 62cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…bbbbbacked Xtreme Gaming | 47c | 648.74$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.83 | 610 | 57.9%353 W · 257 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ffc…8967backed Team Yandex | 15c | 510$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.2 | 220 | 33.6%74 W · 146 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Xtreme Gaming | 74c | 450$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd3…4191backed Team Yandex | 10c | 321.61$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.28 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf051…a54cbacked Xtreme Gaming | 40c | 306.28$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.49 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | +6.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f04…5fc4backed Team Yandex | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 315 | 45.4%143 W · 172 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa1fa…f3bebacked Team Yandex | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 134 | 50.7%68 W · 66 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Team Yandex | 9c | 160$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 364 | 42.3%154 W · 210 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19e8…7e1ebacked Team Yandex | 13c | 125.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…a26fbacked Xtreme Gaming | 74c | 120$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Team Yandex | 19c | 74.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02d7…0c39backed Xtreme Gaming | 37c | 62.64$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.69 | 205 | 30.7%63 W · 142 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x047a…941ebacked Xtreme Gaming | 41c | 41.46$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.46 | 236 | 40.7%96 W · 140 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf016…fe4ebacked Team Yandex | 28c | 41.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e66…8ca1backed Xtreme Gaming | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Xtreme Gaming | 38c | 32.56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7924backed Xtreme Gaming | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 507 | 57.4%291 W · 216 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3)Team Yandex won
- Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 2 WinnerTeam Yandex won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.