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Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Yandexof Team Yandex, Xtreme Gaming
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$133,061
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$144,605

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $133,061 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 167 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7f76…3e05backed Team Yandex58c23,968$13,783 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,185.096750.7%34 W · 33 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-15.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2307…3934backed Xtreme Gaming42c17,121$7,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,250.1322848.2%110 W · 118 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-7.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac0d…b006backed Team Yandex43c10,711$4,601 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,109.8410661.3%65 W · 41 L+10.4wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+18.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3103…d804backed Xtreme Gaming47c7,467$3,502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,502.28627.9%24 W · 62 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-9.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Xtreme Gaming39c5,998$2,332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,332.41,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe48…5895backed Xtreme Gaming69c5,441$3,775 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,774.6312147.9%58 W · 63 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xea61…cc32backed Team Yandex57c4,199$2,384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,814.547549.3%37 W · 38 L+5.8wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+22.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x25ed…6ac6backed Xtreme Gaming38c3,887$1,481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,481.147855.1%43 W · 35 L+6.7wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+16.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7b5c…99e1backed Xtreme Gaming40c3,735$1,494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,494.042152.4%11 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2586…f071backed Team Yandex70c3,718$2,593 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,124.9134468.9%237 W · 107 L+26.3wins+0.08per pick61cpaid+2.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8245…4f87backed Team Yandex59c3,587$2,124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,462.976261.3%38 W · 24 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d58…9a15backed Team Yandex33c3,015$992 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,023.3514840.5%60 W · 88 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3db3…932fbacked Team Yandex63c2,859$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,058.8316149.7%80 W · 81 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Xtreme Gaming42c2,460$1,042 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,042.0586949%426 W · 443 L-3.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Team Yandex59c2,119$1,257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$862.480443.9%353 W · 451 L-1.7wins0.00per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Team Yandex33c2,105$695 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,410.062356.5%13 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Team Yandex60c2,000$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80089440.3%360 W · 534 L+1.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fe9…706abacked Xtreme Gaming43c1,954$840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$839.9415852.5%83 W · 75 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked Xtreme Gaming40c1,919$763 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$762.9185851.3%440 W · 418 L+30.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x74a8…df59backed Xtreme Gaming40c1,715$688 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$687.524148.8%20 W · 21 L+0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x95b8…47c9backed Team Yandex60c1,658$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$658.368245.1%37 W · 45 L-5.2wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-12%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xda5f…2e9bbacked Team Yandex62c1,615$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$615.3511557.4%66 W · 49 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xacf6…41fcbacked Xtreme Gaming45c1,599$722 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72260646.9%284 W · 322 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d96…d524backed Xtreme Gaming69c1,577$1,085 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,084.7426957.6%155 W · 114 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb116…940abacked Team Yandex61c1,500$920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5808950.6%45 W · 44 L-7.3wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-15.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd892…f6d9backed Xtreme Gaming41c1,452$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600.062035%7 W · 13 L-4.0wins-0.20per pick55cpaid-36.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1f2d…2b35backed Team Yandex58c1,300$754 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$545.9853652.6%282 W · 254 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe229…17eabacked Xtreme Gaming40c1,249$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed Xtreme Gaming41c1,178$478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$478.3155751.7%288 W · 269 L+16.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2afa…fa8abacked Xtreme Gaming66c1,101$729 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$728.78425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.29per pick54cpaid-66.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x59e8…b8f7backed Xtreme Gaming66c1,029$680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$680.013461.8%21 W · 13 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick70cpaid-14.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7a78…add7backed Xtreme Gaming41c1,015$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420.0936442.3%154 W · 210 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-14.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5942…5641backed Xtreme Gaming41c1,000$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4103228.1%9 W · 23 L-5.0wins-0.16per pick44cpaid-46%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd138…7058backed Team Yandex62c1,000$620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38011551.3%59 W · 56 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-12.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a28…41edbacked Xtreme Gaming47c995.18$469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$469.4221350.7%108 W · 105 L+5.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ffc…8967backed Xtreme Gaming39c969.99$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$378.2922033.6%74 W · 146 L-0.6wins0.00per pick34cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0341…a679backed Xtreme Gaming39c769.23$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3008155.6%45 W · 36 L+8.2wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+37.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2cea…2d58backed Xtreme Gaming59c759.99$446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4461258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+3.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x47c8…f30abacked Team Yandex40c740$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4442133.3%7 W · 14 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-11.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8a9…3f60backed Team Yandex50c728.37$361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$367.622548%12 W · 13 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9dd3…4191backed Xtreme Gaming25c719.55$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.881145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick40cpaid-9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8889…a9d1backed Xtreme Gaming42c714.88$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30019743.1%85 W · 112 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x74ef…1ac6backed Team Yandex61c699.1$424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275.147660.7%289 W · 187 L-0.2wins0.00per pick61cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x334d…45c4backed Xtreme Gaming58c692.99$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-24.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x61fa…7f62backed Xtreme Gaming45c687.56$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.446451.5%239 W · 225 L-12.1wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa0f9…cf34backed Team Yandex74c639.16$472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.4518661.8%115 W · 71 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick66cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcdd2…a1fdbacked Team Yandex47c627.44$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.323847.4%18 W · 20 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdab0…2fe9backed Xtreme Gaming51c583.5$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3003348.5%16 W · 17 L-4.4wins-0.13per pick62cpaid-21.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5388…4d5abacked Xtreme Gaming43c578.16$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.6121847.2%103 W · 115 L+16.5wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+16.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9e08…3d14backed Team Yandex53c565.21$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.213855.3%21 W · 17 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed Xtreme Gaming43c562.07$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.1762841.1%258 W · 370 L-17.8wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-18.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x35fe…95f7backed Team Yandex54c511.71$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.71450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+18.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x031d…db9dbacked Team Yandex60c500$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20015653.2%83 W · 73 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5ea5…2af9backed Team Yandex62c483.87$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.875078%39 W · 11 L+7.4wins+0.15per pick63cpaid+20.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xa1fa…f3bebacked Team Yandex50c458.02$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.7613450.7%68 W · 66 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x091e…3432backed Team Yandex63c451.78$287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.1911452.6%60 W · 54 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2133…7903backed Xtreme Gaming49c437.24$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21434443.9%151 W · 193 L-0.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid-10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf32d…bbbbbacked Xtreme Gaming59c423.73$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25061057.9%353 W · 257 L+2.8wins0.00per pick57cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e87…8befbacked Team Yandex62c419.35$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.354573.3%33 W · 12 L+4.0wins+0.09per pick64cpaid+11.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdc8f…092ebacked Team Yandex32c400$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2721968.4%13 W · 6 L+2.7wins+0.14per pick54cpaid+12.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6450…9547backed Xtreme Gaming40c387.94$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15610141.6%42 W · 59 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17cd…7423backed Xtreme Gaming39c357.87$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.5711947.1%56 W · 63 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+15.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1448…9b9cbacked Team Yandex57c350.88$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.8813262.9%83 W · 49 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b26…c9afbacked Team Yandex49c340.98$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.3214251.4%73 W · 69 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ba0…ff3abacked Team Yandex60c335.97$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.977157.7%41 W · 30 L-0.1wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4f2…3263backed Team Yandex60c333.33$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.336175.4%46 W · 15 L+5.8wins+0.09per pick66cpaid+14.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x30db…07c3backed Team Yandex61c327.87$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.8754445.8%249 W · 295 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x75f3…0e78backed Team Yandex62c322.58$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.5841248.8%201 W · 211 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x931f…d15dbacked Team Yandex62c322.58$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.583372.7%24 W · 9 L+3.3wins+0.10per pick63cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x31ea…6f62backed Team Yandex36c300$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.031250%6 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-13.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf7b0…6960backed Xtreme Gaming37c299.99$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1118055%44 W · 36 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe463…f7b2backed Team Yandex58c280$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.620838.9%81 W · 127 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd17d…d0eebacked Xtreme Gaming57c268.45$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15419246.4%89 W · 103 L-6.4wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5cab…a8cfbacked Team Yandex76c264.55$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.5535370%247 W · 106 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x98ff…4303backed Xtreme Gaming41c263.41$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1081030%3 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick43cpaid-26.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1f04…5fc4backed Team Yandex59c255.99$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10531545.4%143 W · 172 L-19.2wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-13.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4cd8…c4abbacked Xtreme Gaming42c238.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe99e…0084backed Xtreme Gaming42c238.1$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10087645.7%400 W · 476 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed Xtreme Gaming30c225$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.4259250.5%299 W · 293 L-20.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x115d…1691backed Team Yandex46c221.35$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.7114244.4%63 W · 79 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd4b…f8fbbacked Team Yandex55c220.9$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.45137.3%19 W · 32 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-14.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4732…e79bbacked Xtreme Gaming59c215.92$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1271050%5 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-23.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb358…122cbacked Team Yandex60c205$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$825635.7%20 W · 36 L-10.2wins-0.18per pick54cpaid-39.8%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x4d60…be72backed Xtreme Gaming45c198.72$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.4619949.2%98 W · 101 L+8.7wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0f18…c9fdbacked Xtreme Gaming39c194.87$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$761233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.2wins-0.18per pick52cpaid-37.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc9c6…72a8backed Xtreme Gaming63c187.5$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1181540%6 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-30%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9710…80a3backed Xtreme Gaming71c160$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.6366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick76cpaid-14.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7072…abccbacked Team Yandex50c160$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8012868%87 W · 41 L+5.5wins+0.04per pick64cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8942…9ea9backed Team Yandex65c153.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.856943.5%30 W · 39 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-22.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb569…6fe0backed Xtreme Gaming35c153.85$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.8527548%132 W · 143 L-1.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7373…3964backed Team Yandex31c150$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.512755.1%70 W · 57 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x61c1…0513backed Xtreme Gaming69c144.93$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010659.4%63 W · 43 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick63cpaid-6.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9160…de3dbacked Xtreme Gaming45c142.86$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6511534.8%40 W · 75 L-14.1wins-0.12per pick47cpaid-25.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x824d…1271backed Xtreme Gaming25c139.99$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.524026.7%64 W · 176 L-30.5wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-42.9%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x8c61…470fbacked Team Yandex36c138.89$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.899544.2%42 W · 53 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-16.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a9c…7fa0backed Xtreme Gaming12c129.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.525335.8%19 W · 34 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick31cpaid-18.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xce1f…7392backed Xtreme Gaming57c118.33$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.4567853.5%363 W · 315 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x46fe…a43dbacked Xtreme Gaming43c115.54$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502770.4%19 W · 8 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick65cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x197b…7477backed Xtreme Gaming41c114.93$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.126633.3%22 W · 44 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbcf0…4c25backed Xtreme Gaming64c113.3$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$731435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-23.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.