Premier League · resolved market
Spread: Wrexham AFC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x89b1a5ab123ab0ba2595da64245b9c9af22259c6bcefe4a120b894463c7aa39c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cardiff City FCof Wrexham AFC, Cardiff City FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,835
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,805
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,835 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cardiff City FC | 70c | 6,070$4,248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,821.77 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Wrexham AFC | 30c | 5,596$1,678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,678.37 | 773 | 42.8%331 W · 442 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Wrexham AFC | 31c | 575.37$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.49 | 914 | 35.3%323 W · 591 L | -15.5wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Wrexham AFC | 26c | 384.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 351 | 34.8%122 W · 229 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Cardiff City FC | 69c | 275.25$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.07 | 1,044 | 33.3%348 W · 696 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Cardiff City FC | 74c | 173.91$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.64 | 86 | 64%55 W · 31 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Wrexham AFC | 31c | 155.51$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.45 | 593 | 32.9%195 W · 398 L | -30.9wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Cardiff City FC | 71c | 149.09$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.36 | 93 | 58.1%54 W · 39 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Cardiff City FC | 71c | 149.07$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.35 | 96 | 60.4%58 W · 38 L | +7.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7014…41eebacked Wrexham AFC | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.15per pick | 33cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Cardiff City FC | 70c | 108.32$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.38 | 142 | 53.5%76 W · 66 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x125a…df71backed Wrexham AFC | 33c | 96$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.68 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda6f…1e46backed Wrexham AFC | 34c | 82.35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Cardiff City FC | 72c | 55.71$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.54 | 284 | 56.7%161 W · 123 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Wrexham AFC | 31c | 36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 296 | 43.6%129 W · 167 L | -11.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Cardiff City FC | 71c | 17.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 220 | 57.7%127 W · 93 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Wrexham AFC (-1.5)this page
- Cardiff City FC vs. Wrexham AFC: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Cardiff City FC vs. Wrexham AFC: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Cardiff City FC vs. Wrexham AFC: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Cardiff City FC vs. Wrexham AFC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Cardiff City FC vs. Wrexham AFC: Cardiff City FC O/U 1.5Under won
- Cardiff City FC vs. Wrexham AFC: O/U 0.5Over won
- Cardiff City FC vs. Wrexham AFC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Cardiff City FC vs. Wrexham AFC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Cardiff City FC vs. Wrexham AFC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Cardiff City FC vs. Wrexham AFC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Cardiff City FC vs. Wrexham AFC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Cardiff City FC (-1.5)Wrexham AFC won
- Spread: Wrexham AFC (-2.5)Cardiff City FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.