Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on May 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x89d4716ae252697e1e2dd51fe0797cb810c09102ec3224452e2d5eebda326b4a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,179
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,256
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,179 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 12c | 1,440$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.69 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 3c | 708$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 8c | 558.86$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.53 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked Yes | 20c | 387.42$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.72 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x437f…5b95backed Yes | 19c | 310.07$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.45 | 125 | 36.8%46 W · 79 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 5c | 304.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 5c | 252.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd0…3df2backed Yes | 19c | 232.75$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.16 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 7c | 215.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 14c | 206.86$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.25 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 18c | 179.74$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.51 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x617c…a1b6backed Yes | 22c | 156.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.74 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3910…ba74backed Yes | 14c | 137.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 15c | 135.89$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf7…1cd7backed Yes | 9c | 124.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +150%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 80c | 105$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x053b…d0fabacked Yes | 23c | 105$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.21 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 11c | 100.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29fb…de76backed Yes | 13c | 85.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc47e…0fc4backed Yes | 26c | 70.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb385…3824backed Yes | 22c | 68.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…13e5backed Yes | 24c | 51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcca4…abb1backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7164…24fabacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed No | 79c | 38.03$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 79c | 25.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.37 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on May 31?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 31?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.