Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6965cb2718ced8fead8fc81c9b23495cca13ccb59ae466468ccb880b9ed4746a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,333
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,821
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,333 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 113 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 32c | 548.58$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.9 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6de…6f5ebacked No | 62c | 440.97$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.6 | 116 | 27.6%32 W · 84 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked No | 71c | 435$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.93 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x437f…5b95backed Yes | 61c | 415.28$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.9 | 125 | 36.8%46 W · 79 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed No | 74c | 381.54$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.52 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 16c | 354.4$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.35 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 25c | 308.74$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.69 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb76…2abdbacked Yes | 36c | 300$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 63c | 284.08$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.65 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2188…7a8dbacked Yes | 36c | 280.75$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.75 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 23c | 270.31$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.89 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 35c | 251.11$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.62 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 14c | 243.72$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.28 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 207.79$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.12 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcca4…abb1backed Yes | 35c | 204.58$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.92 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 37c | 200$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.23 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 21c | 169.93$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.25 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 48c | 165.32$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.65 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes | 28c | 160.27$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.57 | 234 | 36.3%85 W · 149 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 11c | 159.73$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.17 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed No | 51c | 133.51$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.68 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 41c | 132.45$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.21 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 13c | 130$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 31c | 129.96$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.32 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecc6…b97abacked Yes | 52c | 129.81$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.47 | 175 | 36.6%64 W · 111 L | +11.9wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 30c | 128$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.12 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d4…028ebacked Yes | 64c | 125.4$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.7 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 14c | 121.52$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.04 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x041b…d3ebbacked No | 33c | 119.62$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf143…b143backed Yes | 64c | 117.28$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.22 | 110 | 69.1%76 W · 34 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 29c | 109.14$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.38 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee01…b01fbacked No | 62c | 107.35$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.56 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 70c | 101.98$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.1 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e15…0cc5backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.08 | 106 | 31.1%33 W · 73 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc47e…0fc4backed Yes | 35c | 99.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.99 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 64c | 99$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.36 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f25…bee4backed Yes | 31c | 91.89$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.48 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 36c | 86.86$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.41 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x053b…d0fabacked Yes | 23c | 84.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.39 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 20c | 84.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4f…b7d3backed No | 66c | 83.7$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 37c | 80.07$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.14 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 18c | 79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 62c | 78.03$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.38 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24b5…d8dbbacked Yes | 34c | 77.72$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.95 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b70…12b4backed Yes | 16c | 74.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.79 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +10.1wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +77.2%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…39d7backed No | 21c | 72.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 297 | 17.2%51 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…84bfbacked Yes | 14c | 71.46$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.1 | 204 | 45.1%92 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 70c | 71.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 37c | 70$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.9 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 44c | 69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.04 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 44c | 68.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.53 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1044…51bfbacked Yes | 55c | 68.1$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.46 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 39c | 63.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 34c | 63.6$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.21 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 64c | 60.54$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.02 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 32c | 60$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.9 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7603…2276backed No | 69c | 59.4$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.01 | 146 | 74.7%109 W · 37 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 63c | 56.84$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.01 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6719…a34dbacked Yes | 31c | 56$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.69 | 91 | 29.7%27 W · 64 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 18c | 54.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…13e5backed Yes | 32c | 54.75$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.31 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 55c | 54.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.22 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4875…149bbacked Yes | 22c | 53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.34 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1933…1a53backed No | 64c | 52.96$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.1 | 130 | 51.5%67 W · 63 L | +7.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 58c | 51.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.82 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9777…3761backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf27…026fbacked No | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd87d…e519backed Yes | 39c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.55 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…2ee3backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 76 | 59.2%45 W · 31 L | +5.7wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f5…923abacked Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 30c | 49.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked No | 48c | 47.07$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.58 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x027b…848cbacked Yes | 39c | 46.15$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 42c | 44.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes | 68c | 44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 74c | 40.79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2cff…468bbacked No | 74c | 40.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 162 | 63%102 W · 60 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…eae5backed No | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 63c | 39.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.34 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 32c | 37.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36e1…eb43backed No | 66c | 37$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 62c | 36.16$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.42 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4701…ca83backed No | 64c | 36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 70c | 34.21$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 62c | 32.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c1c…5aebbacked Yes | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +74.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…42acbacked No | 70c | 29.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.17per pick | 66cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 64c | 28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed No | 57c | 27.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…256ebacked Yes | 49c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.38 | 233 | 62.2%145 W · 88 L | +33.5wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a12…f7fdbacked No | 62c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 160 | 45.6%73 W · 87 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 64c | 23.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 31?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on May 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.