Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x96290ce5f53dbee4eccaa6426422b2c5846a7b4f8ea83d761503598ffb435643
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,553
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,009
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,553 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 97 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafc3…33e8backed Yes | 15c | 445.53$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.61 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 75c | 414$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.7 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 13c | 345.61$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.95 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…3a35backed No | 68c | 309.86$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.92 | 105 | 36.2%38 W · 67 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 6c | 269.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8b…f02fbacked Yes | 53c | 217.57$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 19c | 212.9$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.67 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x437f…5b95backed Yes | 37c | 200.58$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.33 | 125 | 36.8%46 W · 79 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 32c | 200$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.86 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecc6…b97abacked Yes | 11c | 181$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 175 | 36.6%64 W · 111 L | +11.9wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x167e…0f16backed No | 70c | 180$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.9 | 83 | 61.4%51 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 72c | 179.46$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.52 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 30c | 165$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.81 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 39c | 162.55$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.69 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 19c | 159.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.52 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 38c | 147.35$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.83 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c39…74a8backed Yes | 17c | 141.77$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -59%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed Yes | 35c | 141.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 32c | 132.76$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.33 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 35c | 118.86$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.88 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 30c | 111.8$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.85 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 66c | 111.73$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.73 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 74c | 110.61$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.71 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes | 37c | 98.7$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.52 | 234 | 36.3%85 W · 149 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 61c | 96$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.78 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f5…923abacked Yes | 35c | 90.97$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.07 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1535…d77bbacked Yes | 29c | 88.49$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.66 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf5…21c2backed Yes | 57c | 87.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6719…a34dbacked Yes | 26c | 81.44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.84 | 91 | 29.7%27 W · 64 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 25c | 81.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes | 29c | 79.31$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 274 | 21.9%60 W · 214 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…05a0backed Yes | 32c | 76.61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.86 | 181 | 6.1%11 W · 170 L | -14.8wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcca4…abb1backed Yes | 34c | 75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2109…58b3backed No | 45c | 74.6$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.03 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 19c | 73.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc47e…0fc4backed Yes | 51c | 73.17$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.32 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 72.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked Yes | 21c | 72.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 66c | 70.04$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.94 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 70c | 68.97$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.41 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 38c | 67.13$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.84 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 79c | 64.85$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.37 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x967f…6990backed Yes | 31c | 63.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…13e5backed Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 67c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 24c | 50.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4875…149bbacked Yes | 34c | 50.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf40f…c3bcbacked Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 36 | 11.1%4 W · 32 L | -4.1wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x266b…afaabacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 35c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b70…12b4backed Yes | 52c | 48.87$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +10.1wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +77.2%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 33c | 48.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef65…d64fbacked No | 69c | 48$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.88 | 191 | 71.7%137 W · 54 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x90e2…fc3fbacked No | 47c | 46.19$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 72c | 44.7$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.71 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb1…6be9backed No | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -4.9wins | -0.17per pick | 48cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fd…5c4fbacked No | 46c | 41.44$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.44 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -11.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29fb…de76backed Yes | 31c | 41.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7554…0b84backed Yes | 32c | 40.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 140 | 40.7%57 W · 83 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3313…92adbacked Yes | 26c | 40.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5398…ceb0backed Yes | 52c | 38.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +10.6wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked No | 78c | 38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 29c | 37.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 43c | 34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 51c | 33.74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf279…202cbacked No | 47c | 32.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.34 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71b5…6dabbacked No | 46c | 32.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.29 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed Yes | 55c | 31.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 75c | 30.55$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59ce…e3f0backed Yes | 47c | 29.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1933…1a53backed No | 71c | 29.74$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 130 | 51.5%67 W · 63 L | +7.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 64c | 27.98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x027b…848cbacked Yes | 42c | 27.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84e3…3dfdbacked No | 72c | 27.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 148 | 78.4%116 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 54c | 26.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.07 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed Yes | 54c | 26.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 67c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 71c | 23.81$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3edb…65bbbacked No | 47c | 23.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.28 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +33%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x63fd…0047backed No | 75c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.69 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 73cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f06…93c2backed No | 73c | 21.92$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 22 | 95.5%21 W · 1 L | +4.9wins | +0.22per pick | 73cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 74c | 20.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x746d…2db5backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 74 | 67.6%50 W · 24 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 73cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x410f…57febacked No | 71c | 19.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.79 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 64c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.07 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 70c | 16.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.07 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 72c | 16.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 65c | 16.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 62c | 16.19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked No | 65c | 16.04$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.69 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a40…4e34backed No | 73c | 15.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1a…ff36backed No | 73c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 37 | 73%27 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x398b…0489backed No | 75c | 13.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.26 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 31?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 31?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on May 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.