CS2 · resolved market
BLAST.tv Austin Major: Aurora vs. FURIA
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x89fafb6e1110e1fbe2f0dfc195f85873d282a0ff2d5c1c17d5174ed31b93d7d5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- FURIAof Aurora, FURIA
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,923
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,530
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,923 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Aurora | 54c | 1,357$733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$733.31 | 754 | 50.5%381 W · 373 L | +17.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked FURIA | 45c | 1,250$558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$691.65 | 160 | 33.8%54 W · 106 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0564…ce95backed Aurora | 63c | 795.56$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9d…d327backed FURIA | 48c | 500$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.6 | 186 | 50%93 W · 93 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41b4…de82backed Aurora | 13c | 368$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.54 | 135 | 32.6%44 W · 91 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb950…4dd4backed Aurora | 60c | 313.98$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.69 | 567 | 38.8%220 W · 347 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c56…8474backed FURIA | 38c | 299.99$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed FURIA | 37c | 232$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.16 | 116 | 54.3%63 W · 53 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40d5…bfe9backed FURIA | 37c | 210$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.3 | 633 | 45.2%286 W · 347 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebed…97bebacked Aurora | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46a6…8c21backed FURIA | 39c | 200$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a18…2ef0backed Aurora | 59c | 169.28$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 240 | 55.8%134 W · 106 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4047…7293backed FURIA | 35c | 164.23$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.75 | 458 | 48.5%222 W · 236 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7032…0a8bbacked Aurora | 65c | 155$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.75 | 353 | 41.6%147 W · 206 L | -28.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed Aurora | 25c | 142$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc376…a8e7backed FURIA | 40c | 136.98$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.98 | 225 | 56%126 W · 99 L | +8.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7253…89edbacked Aurora | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 154 | 49.4%76 W · 78 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x358e…b0ccbacked FURIA | 45c | 97.2$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.46 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2702…0495backed Aurora | 55c | 83.02$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.66 | 64 | 54.7%35 W · 29 L | -6.7wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb8af…4900backed FURIA | 35c | 77.76$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.54 | 145 | 40.7%59 W · 86 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb192…9516backed FURIA | 43c | 72.09$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.09 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb678…5a9dbacked Aurora | 28c | 53.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71b7…8d7dbacked FURIA | 31c | 49.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 16cpaid | 0%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5be2…8fa3backed Aurora | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 217 | 62.7%136 W · 81 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6391…bc1cbacked Aurora | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa4…b3f0backed FURIA | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7514…49bebacked Aurora | 68c | 36.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 317 | 58%184 W · 133 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f58…254cbacked Aurora | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 170 | 48.2%82 W · 88 L | +8.1wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0456…7208backed FURIA | 38c | 26.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.74 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.