Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on May 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x89fb44b00c7baf67347935d41ff3a73c6bdde1848a6f909dfc7ccb631cbea90b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,585
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,475
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,585 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 53c | 453.57$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.47 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 24c | 395.64$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.8 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 30c | 328.19$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.34 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 56c | 297.11$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.82 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 4c | 250.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 74c | 228.34$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.59 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 19c | 191.74$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.36 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 17c | 171.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.86 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 30c | 162.29$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.02 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 17c | 161.96$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.39 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 38c | 142.26$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.42 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 48c | 136.96$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.66 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 23c | 132.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.69 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 14c | 130.31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 73c | 126.22$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.28 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x997e…7e58backed No | 80c | 110.66$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.01 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -3.4wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 19c | 108.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 19c | 101.65$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.21 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 46c | 101$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.6 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc41d…c51dbacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 161 | 44.1%71 W · 90 L | +14.3wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 19c | 96.81$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.42 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 19c | 83.24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.24 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 34c | 77.58$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.55 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 16c | 74.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.3 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 62c | 72.86$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.92 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 15c | 65.9$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.84 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 46c | 65.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.15 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 79c | 65$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.17 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 47c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.33 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 55c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 52c | 59.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.35 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 33c | 55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 23c | 54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.7 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…39d7backed No | 20c | 52.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 297 | 17.2%51 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 56c | 51$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.32 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ead…8046backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 46 | 84.8%39 W · 7 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 77cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 22c | 49.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.79 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 29c | 45.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.29 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 39.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.99 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 40c | 35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 63c | 32.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 70c | 32.57$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.86 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeff4…88d2backed No | 76c | 31.58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 67cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 73c | 30.68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 60c | 27.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec4…cb91backed No | 79c | 21.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 71 | 70.4%50 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 78c | 21.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fb…4af5backed Yes | 56c | 21.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -3.0wins | -0.38per pick | 63cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf4df…e6cfbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 138 | 62.3%86 W · 52 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 60c | 18.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x879e…e339backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 175 | 55.4%97 W · 78 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 79c | 14.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on May 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 70°F or higher on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on May 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.