Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on May 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x57f8d1e44f1c2edaaf291203e493261bfdaa4937a546e1582001855633ba1e43
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,440
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,115
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,440 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 41c | 1,429$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$587.65 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 47c | 727.44$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.4 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaaf…051bbacked No | 80c | 619.58$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.02 | 131 | 60.3%79 W · 52 L | +13.9wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8f25…5490backed No | 75c | 562.42$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.21 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 39c | 399.15$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.55 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 73c | 332.81$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.66 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 40c | 319.95$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.53 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 9c | 303.1$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.56 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 31c | 293.36$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.85 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked No | 64c | 244.78$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.25 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0f3c…758dbacked Yes | 27c | 229.99$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.1 | 113 | 37.2%42 W · 71 L | +8.1wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 217.35$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.37 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 40c | 183.14$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.23 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 77c | 130.6$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.57 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 49c | 126$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.25 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 40c | 98$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 54c | 93$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.97 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 55c | 82.59$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.65 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 55c | 82.29$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.38 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 34c | 72.29$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.93 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 26c | 70.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 63c | 67.42$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.74 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 40c | 66.3$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.81 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 49c | 63$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.79 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 25c | 62.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 61c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.47 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 75c | 58.5$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 29c | 51.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fd…5c4fbacked Yes | 47c | 50.91$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -11.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes | 25c | 50.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 244 | 34.4%84 W · 160 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…39d7backed No | 21c | 49.62$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 297 | 17.2%51 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eaa…3561backed Yes | 25c | 49.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 106 | 36.8%39 W · 67 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 73c | 46.82$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.52 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 42c | 38.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 74c | 35.44$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.21 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 44c | 35.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.75 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked No | 55c | 34.09$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.35 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x506c…840cbacked Yes | 42c | 31.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd52e…8f98backed No | 57c | 28.93$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -7.2wins | -0.28per pick | 66cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1b…da1ebacked No | 75c | 26.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 54c | 22.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.62 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 65c | 22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 69c | 21.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 59c | 21.59$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.92 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe805…e416backed No | 62c | 21.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 65cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 74c | 20.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ab…5cf7backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 208 | 52.4%109 W · 99 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8327…577dbacked No | 61c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe679…636abacked Yes | 75c | 18.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 111 | 33.3%37 W · 74 L | +6.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 62c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…81aabacked Yes | 66c | 17.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 270 | 79.3%214 W · 56 L | +52.5wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…05ebbacked No | 74c | 15.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 163 | 54%88 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb040…ef71backed No | 73c | 14.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 113 | 62.8%71 W · 42 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb060…9572backed Yes | 80c | 12.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on May 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 70°F or higher on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on May 27?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.