NFL · resolved market
Bengals vs. Broncos: O/U 43.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8a0c4b2909413d1ccc2621676c2dc2d4563af02effae61fb6a57d23f1f96e483
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,541
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,549
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,541 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9ec2…69fdbacked Over | 54c | 4,357$2,343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,342.54 | 117 | 55.6%65 W · 52 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cda…6e17backed Under | 46c | 1,372$631 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$740.95 | 123 | 52.8%65 W · 58 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Under | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540 | 265 | 47.2%125 W · 140 L | +10.4wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef2…f473backed Under | 47c | 829.78$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.78 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a1e…2e41backed Over | 53c | 754.72$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Under | 47c | 604.72$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.5 | 373 | 50.9%190 W · 183 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Under | 46c | 500$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 415 | 40.2%167 W · 248 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7474…4ebabacked Under | 48c | 484.44$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.91 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ea…22ecbacked Under | 49c | 300$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25f4…20e0backed Over | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Under | 47c | 170.21$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.21 | 280 | 47.5%133 W · 147 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked Over | 51c | 108$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 107 | 52.3%56 W · 51 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 46c | 107.85$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.24 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x133e…5058backed Over | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.8wins | -0.38per pick | 58cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 52c | 91$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.14 | 647 | 47.3%306 W · 341 L | +42.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Under | 48c | 91$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.14 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d03…369abacked Over | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Under | 46c | 35.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 245 | 51%125 W · 120 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bengals vs. Broncos: O/U 43.5this page
- Bengals vs. BroncosBroncos won
- Bengals vs. Broncos: O/U 41.5Under won
- Bengals vs. Broncos: O/U 44.5Under won
- Bengals vs. Broncos: O/U 46.5Under won
- Bengals vs. Broncos: O/U 47.5Under won
- Spread: Broncos (-10.5)Broncos won
- Spread: Broncos (-3.5)Broncos won
- Spread: Broncos (-4.5)Broncos won
- Spread: Broncos (-6.5)Broncos won
- Spread: Broncos (-7.5)Broncos won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.