TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Spread: Broncos (-7.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Broncosof Broncos, Bengals
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$338,405
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$342,131

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $338,405 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 112 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1117…3532backed Broncos49c110,000$53,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56,10031240.7%127 W · 185 L-22.0wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-16.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Bengals51c103,996$53,038 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53,038.0917454.6%95 W · 79 L+8.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9158…fa7bbacked Bengals52c70,000$36,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36,40011445.6%52 W · 62 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x090a…01b4backed Bengals52c38,739$20,107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,106.816836.9%62 W · 106 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaefe…1e4abacked Bengals51c38,287$19,604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,6041957.9%11 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe38e…c29dbacked Broncos48c30,000$14,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,60010566.7%70 W · 35 L+12.6wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+19.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1496…a429backed Broncos49c19,912$9,757 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,155.1627454.7%150 W · 124 L+13.3wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4689…54aebacked Broncos49c13,750$6,737 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,012.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Broncos48c13,500$6,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,02083147.8%397 W · 434 L+13.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Bengals52c11,538$6,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,00025744.4%114 W · 143 L+0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7fb7…e33dbacked Broncos48c10,490$5,033 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,456.6841851.9%217 W · 201 L+13.1wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9249…4f16backed Bengals52c9,352$4,863 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,863.0417647.7%84 W · 92 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Broncos49c6,666$3,266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,399.6351352.2%268 W · 245 L+16.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+12.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4762…ba70backed Bengals52c6,519$3,390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,3907346.6%34 W · 39 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x88a2…d974backed Broncos49c6,122$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,122.4513142%55 W · 76 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f89…0d03backed Bengals51c5,882$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0005330.2%16 W · 37 L-8.5wins-0.16per pick46cpaid-36.6%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Broncos49c5,202$2,549 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,653.0237350.9%190 W · 183 L+12.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Bengals50c5,000$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,50018435.9%66 W · 118 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick38cpaid+1.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed Bengals52c5,000$2,597 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,597.2513843.5%60 W · 78 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4dbe…af34backed Broncos48c5,000$2,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,6008959.6%53 W · 36 L+7.4wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+20.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xdc5b…5b15backed Broncos48c5,000$2,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,60010552.4%55 W · 50 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ac1…45dbbacked Broncos50c4,000$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,0007754.5%42 W · 35 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c86…366bbacked Broncos49c3,450$1,691 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,759.52245.5%10 W · 12 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick40cpaid-4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe63e…e2cfbacked Bengals51c3,317$1,692 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,691.67366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb2f…eca9backed Bengals50c2,808$1,404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,403.8317348%83 W · 90 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Broncos49c2,503$1,226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,276.5344652.9%236 W · 210 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Broncos49c2,500$1,225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,274.9935848.6%174 W · 184 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x445e…9be0backed Broncos49c2,000$970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,03026650.8%135 W · 131 L+1.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed Bengals52c2,000$1,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,04019645.4%89 W · 107 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-1.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x3134…1b18backed Bengals51c1,961$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0009152.7%48 W · 43 L-0.3wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb790…8389backed Broncos50c1,597$797 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$800.521850%9 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb36…9545backed Broncos48c1,000$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5207644.7%34 W · 42 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x20e2…667fbacked Broncos50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$500850%4 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-17%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf9f…f6a3backed Bengals51c980.39$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5009444.7%42 W · 52 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-3.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Broncos48c822$395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$426.6577052.7%406 W · 364 L+24.8wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5388…4d5abacked Bengals50c600$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3002552%13 W · 12 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Broncos48c500$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26041540.2%167 W · 248 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-19.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9def…d1a5backed Broncos49c500$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25514945.6%68 W · 81 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-1.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x71c1…e358backed Broncos49c492$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.610940.4%44 W · 65 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2630…e941backed Bengals51c422$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.226650%33 W · 33 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x183a…d514backed Bengals51c400$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20414355.2%79 W · 64 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+0.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf339…e010backed Bengals52c400$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20819654.1%106 W · 90 L+15.6wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+17.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3853…a3d3backed Broncos50c400$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2002254.5%12 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x831b…eed5backed Bengals51c392.16$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2004546.7%21 W · 24 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-16.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x504f…3ddcbacked Bengals51c392.16$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20011547%54 W · 61 L+0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid+11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbf6…513abacked Broncos48c350$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1826648.5%32 W · 34 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+12%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6884…6ccfbacked Broncos50c334$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1677751.9%40 W · 37 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Broncos54c305$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.5564747.3%306 W · 341 L+42.5wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+56.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5672…5019backed Broncos49c303.92$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.925141.2%21 W · 30 L-4.3wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-17.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3f7a…d7ccbacked Bengals51c300$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1531338.5%5 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf2e…ddecbacked Broncos49c283.07$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.3722548.4%109 W · 116 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a32…6d7ebacked Broncos48c274.1$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.534551.1%23 W · 22 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc996…bb65backed Bengals41c255$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.5541947.3%198 W · 221 L+1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Broncos48c214.5$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.541,06551.3%546 W · 519 L+25.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x59e7…c669backed Broncos49c204.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.08666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.22per pick44cpaid+69.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Bengals50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10055345%249 W · 304 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x41b7…f6babacked Broncos50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10029751.5%153 W · 144 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xedae…584fbacked Broncos48c200$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1043250%16 W · 16 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfcfe…d420backed Broncos50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10015855.7%88 W · 70 L+5.9wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+11.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5cfe…ed69backed Bengals51c200$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10224243.4%105 W · 137 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x12fe…38cfbacked Bengals52c200$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10431540.6%128 W · 187 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6edc…18cebacked Bengals52c200$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10417548%84 W · 91 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-10.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e64…7308backed Broncos50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1002171.4%15 W · 6 L+3.8wins+0.18per pick53cpaid+34.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa717…8919backed Bengals51c198.71$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.3411047.3%52 W · 58 L-7.4wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-13.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Bengals51c196.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10038459.9%230 W · 154 L+12.0wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x35e3…68b9backed Bengals52c193.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006839.7%27 W · 41 L-6.7wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-23.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Bengals52c192.31$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10033047.9%158 W · 172 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Bengals53c180$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.454451.7%281 W · 263 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2619…9f4ebacked Broncos48c180$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.610752.3%56 W · 51 L+7.8wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+16.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Broncos50c160$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8028047.5%133 W · 147 L-5.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x904b…429cbacked Bengals51c150$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.513051.5%67 W · 63 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+4.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Broncos50c140$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7059453.7%319 W · 275 L+24.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xea64…f2a2backed Broncos49c118.43$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.424551%125 W · 120 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Bengals48c104.32$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.1761148.6%297 W · 314 L+10.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6692…1125backed Broncos50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$504746.8%22 W · 25 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc739…e7abbacked Broncos50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$502360.9%14 W · 9 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+15.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x25ad…46fcbacked Bengals51c100$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$511428.6%4 W · 10 L-2.4wins-0.17per pick46cpaid-37.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x15e3…009fbacked Bengals50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5017459.2%103 W · 71 L+6.7wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+8.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xad5c…ac13backed Broncos49c100$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$516036.7%22 W · 38 L-8.4wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-29.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x438f…28fabacked Bengals51c100$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$511030%3 W · 7 L-2.8wins-0.28per pick58cpaid-48.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x28e0…d720backed Broncos50c99.94$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.972100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+94.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf6dc…8c92backed Bengals51c98.04$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501850%9 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7555…ce17backed Broncos52c96.15$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.159348.4%45 W · 48 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+29.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c82…0d7dbacked Broncos50c88$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$441346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6849…fbdfbacked Bengals51c78.43$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401442.9%6 W · 8 L-2.6wins-0.18per pick61cpaid-31.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9418…4f2abacked Bengals52c76.92$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4019844.9%89 W · 109 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b4b…94d4backed Bengals51c75$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.251957.9%11 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x602d…3534backed Broncos49c71.43$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.4315855.7%88 W · 70 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Bengals58c64.6$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.2932347.4%153 W · 170 L+1.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d03…369abacked Broncos48c53.08$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.68048.8%39 W · 41 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1bfd…3462backed Broncos49c50.62$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.626752.2%35 W · 32 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+13.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6cc…18cebacked Broncos50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256046.7%28 W · 32 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ec4…defabacked Bengals51c45$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.9520542%86 W · 119 L+7.2wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+35.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x75b5…a1f2backed Broncos49c41.49$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.162944.8%13 W · 16 L-2.8wins-0.10per pick54cpaid-21.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xecf5…6a01backed Broncos49c40.82$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.822934.5%10 W · 19 L-4.7wins-0.16per pick51cpaid-35.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb98b…7e18backed Bengals51c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.427835.3%98 W · 180 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x22b8…7b6ebacked Broncos49c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.417060.6%103 W · 67 L+12.6wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+13.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfd24…b40fbacked Broncos49c39.45$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.12742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-18.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe914…1707backed Bengals51c39.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202931%9 W · 20 L-3.0wins-0.11per pick42cpaid-41.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x75d1…b18cbacked Broncos50c30$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1516645.8%76 W · 90 L+9.1wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.