NFL · resolved market
Bengals vs. Broncos: O/U 44.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0b9f23424f6048ef3b46b0267dd0240a3f6863fbdde70d037e4863465827a74f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $219,732
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $219,685
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $219,732 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Under | 52c | 86,094$44,395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41,699.35 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Over | 48c | 64,757$31,083 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31,083.39 | 174 | 54.6%95 W · 79 L | +8.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Over | 49c | 60,000$29,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29,400 | 225 | 48.4%109 W · 116 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f09…4632backed Under | 51c | 50,000$25,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,500 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Over | 49c | 39,410$19,311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,310.8 | 245 | 51%125 W · 120 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec2…69fdbacked Over | 50c | 23,055$11,442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,441.51 | 117 | 55.6%65 W · 52 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb1e…88d5backed Under | 52c | 12,880$6,698 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,182.57 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfcc…441bbacked Under | 52c | 8,446$4,392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,054.15 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -3.9wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 51c | 3,000$1,530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,470 | 111 | 39.6%44 W · 67 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5672…5019backed Over | 48c | 2,184$1,048 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,048.38 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb790…8389backed Over | 48c | 2,083$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 49c | 1,600$784 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$784 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Over | 49c | 1,600$784 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$784 | 114 | 46.5%53 W · 61 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 52c | 1,250$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 358 | 48.6%174 W · 184 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef2…f473backed Under | 52c | 1,198$623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$575.07 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9f…f6a3backed Over | 48c | 1,042$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Under | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 265 | 47.2%125 W · 140 L | +10.4wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…366bbacked Under | 51c | 900$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 49c | 896.11$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.63 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8138…c27fbacked Over | 50c | 822$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Over | 48c | 500$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 415 | 40.2%167 W · 248 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed Under | 51c | 500$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245 | 266 | 50.8%135 W · 131 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Over | 49c | 500$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb7f…824bbacked Over | 48c | 436.46$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.5 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +4.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 52c | 402.41$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.16 | 544 | 51.7%281 W · 263 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bce…558cbacked Under | 53c | 377.36$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.36 | 162 | 75.3%122 W · 40 L | +17.3wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 47c | 368.2$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.05 | 600 | 49.3%296 W · 304 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 53c | 300$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141 | 647 | 47.3%306 W · 341 L | +42.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Over | 47c | 300$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…d105backed Over | 49c | 250$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.5 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked Over | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0b…f9d6backed Over | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | -10.3wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x183a…d514backed Over | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 143 | 55.2%79 W · 64 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Under | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 315 | 40.6%128 W · 187 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f4…7942backed Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad0b…8030backed Under | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25ad…46fcbacked Over | 48c | 150$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc739…e7abbacked Under | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…009fbacked Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 174 | 59.2%103 W · 71 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 52c | 82$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.4 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Under | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.92 | 198 | 44.9%89 W · 109 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Over | 48c | 76.29$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.62 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfd…3462backed Under | 52c | 76.2$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.2 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5340…5e2bbacked Over | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6cc…18cebacked Over | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…ec0dbacked Over | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 183 | 50.3%92 W · 91 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa982…6c34backed Under | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe914…1707backed Under | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9bb4…4961backed Under | 52c | 32.69$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.69 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +3.0wins | +0.33per pick | 56cpaid | +63%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x12ff…f464backed Under | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c0…17f8backed Under | 52c | 22.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dff…bc36backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +103.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 177 | 41.8%74 W · 103 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bengals vs. Broncos: O/U 44.5this page
- Bengals vs. BroncosBroncos won
- Bengals vs. Broncos: O/U 41.5Under won
- Bengals vs. Broncos: O/U 43.5Under won
- Bengals vs. Broncos: O/U 46.5Under won
- Bengals vs. Broncos: O/U 47.5Under won
- Spread: Broncos (-10.5)Broncos won
- Spread: Broncos (-3.5)Broncos won
- Spread: Broncos (-4.5)Broncos won
- Spread: Broncos (-6.5)Broncos won
- Spread: Broncos (-7.5)Broncos won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.