TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Spread: Broncos (-6.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Broncosof Broncos, Bengals
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$22,481
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$28,007

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,481 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9267…0f9abacked Bengals43c8,897$3,826 inLost-$3,825.7524652%128 W · 118 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4103…9b9ebacked Broncos57c3,505$1,998 inWon+$1,507.26757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+21.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe38e…c29dbacked Broncos56c3,503$1,962 inWon+$1,541.2410566.7%70 W · 35 L+12.6wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+19.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x8717…49a8backed Bengals44c3,380$1,487 inLost-$1,487.2414154.6%77 W · 64 L+0.5wins0.00per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x637a…6d23backed Broncos57c1,760$1,003 inWon+$756.82458.3%14 W · 10 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d5c…0182backed Bengals44c1,496$658 inLost-$658.4310650.9%54 W · 52 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7fb7…e33dbacked Bengals50c1,102$550 inLost-$549.8841851.9%217 W · 201 L+13.1wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Broncos57c1,000$570 inWon+$43026857.1%153 W · 115 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Bengals42c858.14$360 inLost-$360.421,06551.3%546 W · 519 L+25.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x410b…5c3cbacked Broncos56c671.79$376 inWon+$295.591338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-11.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Broncos56c580$325 inWon+$255.277052.7%406 W · 364 L+24.8wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb72b…f4e0backed Broncos57c526.32$300 inWon+$226.3216737.7%63 W · 104 L-6.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-8.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7eda…4bb7backed Broncos58c500$290 inWon+$21014344.1%63 W · 80 L-8.1wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-13.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4192…7f00backed Broncos57c500$285 inWon+$2151540%6 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3853…a3d3backed Broncos58c500$290 inWon+$2102254.5%12 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe544…3cfcbacked Broncos57c440$251 inWon+$189.25550.9%28 W · 27 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Broncos44c300$132 inWon+$16827644.2%122 W · 154 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c0c…6825backed Broncos57c263.16$150 inWon+$113.1610537.1%39 W · 66 L-12.5wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-28.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x0495…c68fbacked Broncos57c263.16$150 inWon+$113.1613845.7%63 W · 75 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-12.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e5b…590dbacked Broncos57c250$143 inWon+$107.510345.6%47 W · 56 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7dd0…2b4bbacked Broncos56c200$112 inWon+$888951.7%46 W · 43 L+5.7wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfc23…8283backed Broncos57c175.44$100 inWon+$75.4412755.1%70 W · 57 L+3.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd2d6…d648backed Broncos58c172.41$100 inWon+$72.418536.5%31 W · 54 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea64…f2a2backed Bengals42c167.24$70 inLost-$70.2424551%125 W · 120 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Bengals43c166.47$72 inLost-$71.8761148.6%297 W · 314 L+10.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x350e…6539backed Broncos58c160$93 inWon+$67.29052.2%47 W · 43 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2954…d34ebacked Broncos57c140.35$80 inWon+$60.351650%8 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2455…845abacked Broncos57c140.21$80 inWon+$60.292100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+67.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Bengals44c122.73$54 inLost-$5424547.8%117 W · 128 L+8.6wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0e08…dfe0backed Broncos57c107.18$61 inWon+$46.091330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.4wins-0.19per pick50cpaid-33.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5d03…369abacked Bengals42c105.16$44 inLost-$44.178048.8%39 W · 41 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2619…9f4ebacked Bengals42c100$42 inLost-$4210752.3%56 W · 51 L+7.8wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+16.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7c82…0d7dbacked Broncos57c77.35$44 inWon+$33.261346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked Broncos57c70$40 inWon+$30.118151.9%94 W · 87 L0.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid+5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6780…e6babacked Broncos58c34.45$20 inWon+$14.471353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Bengals54c30$16 inLost-$16.254451.7%281 W · 263 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc996…bb65backed Bengals51c30$15 inLost-$15.241947.3%198 W · 221 L+1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f8b…01aabacked Broncos55c28.33$16 inWon+$12.758343.4%36 W · 47 L+7.7wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+24%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5ab9…c906backed Broncos56c26.79$15 inWon+$11.793063.3%19 W · 11 L+5.0wins+0.17per pick47cpaid+38%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.