Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8a1ec493076d7e33bd84bb0283232b76dad6a686c56bdddc9a6d7138d288ac36
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,458
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,791
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,458 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x17bd…f0babacked Yes | 36c | 273.22$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.49 | 112 | 50.9%57 W · 55 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 62c | 149$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.36 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked No | 63c | 108.36$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.8 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 38c | 104.06$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 32c | 81.43$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.72 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 73c | 70.81$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.33 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 69c | 62.1$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.3 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b98…8595backed Yes | 19c | 61.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 299 | 13%39 W · 260 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94ae…d801backed Yes | 32c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 39c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 20c | 55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1b…2caebacked Yes | 37c | 54.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 229 | 37.1%85 W · 144 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 62c | 51.94$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.83 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4af9…3144backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 219 | 50.7%111 W · 108 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c2…f88bbacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21d3…8c5fbacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 62c | 47.47$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.04 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 64c | 39.88$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.36 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 62c | 36.9$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 45c | 36.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65a5…2aeebacked Yes | 30c | 35.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | -12.5wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 69c | 33.16$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 36c | 31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 36c | 30.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 62c | 28.67$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 37c | 27.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 76c | 26.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa2…0484backed Yes | 38c | 26.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 161 | 29.2%47 W · 114 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 52c | 26.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.61 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 62c | 24.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 54c | 22.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eee…9a08backed No | 63c | 22.19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +16%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x970d…022ebacked No | 61c | 20.59$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 138 | 45.7%63 W · 75 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 61c | 20.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 62c | 17.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.