Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on August 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8a2bf024ab0bb486b4b62046f65523cb6e002089f23ee0f962d50ebefc1c8a00
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,364
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,599
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,364 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1a81…6cf9backed Yes | 17c | 2,717$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.2 | 172 | 24.4%42 W · 130 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 14c | 747.1$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.22 | 1,246 | 30%374 W · 872 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 15c | 647.41$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.29 | 621 | 46.2%287 W · 334 L | +40.0wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 9c | 583.98$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.12 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c95…52dbbacked No | 79c | 520.81$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.04 | 189 | 47.6%90 W · 99 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32d1…e5c8backed Yes | 3c | 520.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 78 | 9%7 W · 71 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 10c | 496.6$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.32 | 336 | 46.4%156 W · 180 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 6c | 463.84$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.51 | 1,569 | 16.3%255 W · 1,314 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 23c | 449.85$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.13 | 412 | 26.5%109 W · 303 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 12c | 387.87$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.34 | 665 | 21.8%145 W · 520 L | -27.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74dd…2131backed Yes | 5c | 308.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 111 | 15.3%17 W · 94 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 16c | 280.89$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.42 | 431 | 53.1%229 W · 202 L | +25.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd487…5f32backed Yes | 24c | 277.14$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.7 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28b9…427cbacked No | 77c | 270.96$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.32 | 48 | 68.8%33 W · 15 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 73c | 245.29$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.97 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca1…fc25backed Yes | 20c | 231.98$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.28 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd394…7e90backed Yes | 5c | 227.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 64 | 9.4%6 W · 58 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +50%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked No | 78c | 213.15$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.41 | 535 | 48.2%258 W · 277 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54ab…c8dfbacked Yes | 24c | 190.41$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.04 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 11c | 139.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 600 | 32%192 W · 408 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 25c | 139.4$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.14 | 260 | 38.5%100 W · 160 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90e0…6307backed Yes | 17c | 135.79$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.63 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 18c | 130.1$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.51 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 13c | 123.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 218 | 33%72 W · 146 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed Yes | 23c | 122$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.28 | 290 | 51.4%149 W · 141 L | +25.4wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed No | 79c | 120$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 415 | 51.3%213 W · 202 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 76c | 119.09$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 9c | 109.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 360 | 32.2%116 W · 244 L | +19.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes | 14c | 102.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 467 | 36.8%172 W · 295 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae3…372abacked No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.1 | 181 | 57.5%104 W · 77 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 77c | 91.38$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.02 | 892 | 59.8%533 W · 359 L | +18.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 17c | 78.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 2,467 | 35.7%880 W · 1,587 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 79c | 78.38$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.44 | 6,166 | 49.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L | -117.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 74c | 71.5$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 3,649 | 53.2%1,943 W · 1,706 L | +83.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 72c | 70.75$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.65 | 412 | 74.8%308 W · 104 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 80c | 51.56$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 917 | 73.2%671 W · 246 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b49…2e46backed No | 72c | 50.67$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.43 | 66 | 66.7%44 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…34c4backed No | 70c | 49.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 323 | 82%265 W · 58 L | +32.7wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…d06abacked No | 73c | 42.41$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 245 | 70.6%173 W · 72 L | +22.3wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 79c | 36.36$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf143…4ef2backed No | 71c | 33.31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 61 | 65.6%40 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 5,193 | 68.3%3,546 W · 1,647 L | +70.8wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 2,434 | 79.4%1,933 W · 501 L | +99.7wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 77c | 28.33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.54 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 80c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 504 | 62.3%314 W · 190 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed No | 75c | 17.22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.39 | 141 | 54.6%77 W · 64 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on August 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on August 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on August 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.