Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on August 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a19d560456bc58d7e7c66f0a93c828e30647744870b7623ea918e47e2754eb4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,127
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,169
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,127 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 109 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1a81…6cf9backed No | 63c | 1,187$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 172 | 24.4%42 W · 130 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 64c | 674.11$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.65 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 24c | 485.25$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.46 | 2,362 | 20.6%486 W · 1,876 L | -63.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 38c | 450$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.43 | 336 | 46.4%156 W · 180 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 34c | 377.02$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.69 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 34c | 375.41$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.08 | 535 | 48.2%258 W · 277 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 70c | 367.29$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.75 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 60c | 280.29$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.17 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed Yes | 30c | 242.65$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.86 | 254 | 40.9%104 W · 150 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0458…ddc2backed Yes | 31c | 237.65$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.63 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed No | 71c | 235.53$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 431 | 53.1%229 W · 202 L | +25.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed Yes | 53c | 233.62$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.63 | 376 | 52.4%197 W · 179 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 19c | 208.28$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.35 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x578d…bbaabacked No | 74c | 199.31$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.7 | 98 | 57.1%56 W · 42 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc16…ef14backed Yes | 40c | 192.43$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.43 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06ae…0a09backed Yes | 79c | 184.9$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.42 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +4.0wins | +0.21per pick | 58cpaid | +1,329.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc5…c74abacked No | 61c | 165.04$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 63c | 158.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.66 | 2,201 | 62.2%1,370 W · 831 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed Yes | 37c | 158$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.54 | 580 | 53.4%310 W · 270 L | -26.4wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 66c | 154.25$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.2 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked No | 76c | 146.99$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.72 | 621 | 46.2%287 W · 334 L | +40.0wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 37c | 136.2$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.2 | 414 | 43.2%179 W · 235 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 73c | 136$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.28 | 1,826 | 62.9%1,149 W · 677 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 28c | 135.88$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.31 | 2,254 | 56.9%1,283 W · 971 L | +69.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 27c | 134.1$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.51 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…decbbacked Yes | 39c | 128.25$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.25 | 181 | 45.3%82 W · 99 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed Yes | 34c | 123.47$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.49 | 175 | 38.9%68 W · 107 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 43c | 121.88$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.68 | 2,189 | 59.7%1,306 W · 883 L | +26.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 36c | 119$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.16 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 25c | 117.08$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.39 | 2,176 | 53.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L | +36.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 67c | 107.44$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.66 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x550e…94dbbacked Yes | 27c | 105.47$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.99 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +7.1wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 23c | 104.27$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.27 | 3,649 | 53.2%1,943 W · 1,706 L | +83.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 78c | 104.16$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.13 | 484 | 36.6%177 W · 307 L | -24.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 41c | 101.2$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 665 | 21.8%145 W · 520 L | -27.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 465 | 59.1%275 W · 190 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae3…372abacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 181 | 57.5%104 W · 77 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 33c | 92.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.3 | 751 | 38.2%287 W · 464 L | +18.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38d6…d072backed Yes | 74c | 90.35$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.73 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 17c | 83.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 2,226 | 59.1%1,316 W · 910 L | +110.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 72c | 78.46$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.71 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb576…d959backed Yes | 26c | 77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.68 | 100 | 33%33 W · 67 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -28%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 39c | 75$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.75 | 1,301 | 32.9%428 W · 873 L | +24.5wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb8b…9082backed Yes | 67c | 74.83$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.83 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 65cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked No | 59c | 74.42$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.95 | 600 | 32%192 W · 408 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c80…c3ddbacked No | 66c | 73$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.18 | 66 | 66.7%44 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 33c | 72$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.42 | 4,032 | 35.6%1,436 W · 2,596 L | +42.8wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 56c | 71.72$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.72 | 447 | 60%268 W · 179 L | +18.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 31c | 71.68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 2,274 | 56.7%1,289 W · 985 L | +65.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 67c | 70.66$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.48 | 2,223 | 56.1%1,247 W · 976 L | +54.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a43…26babacked Yes | 29c | 70$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.7 | 114 | 44.7%51 W · 63 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 27c | 70$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.1 | 855 | 48.7%416 W · 439 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdeee…7c09backed Yes | 28c | 68.37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.09 | 95 | 51.6%49 W · 46 L | +8.3wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 24c | 68.11$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.48 | 588 | 50.9%299 W · 289 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 35c | 67.72$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.95 | 6,166 | 49.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L | -117.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 59c | 66.3$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.34 | 470 | 47.2%222 W · 248 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa25e…2dd7backed Yes | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa095…6845backed No | 77c | 64.87$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca1…fc25backed No | 77c | 62.23$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.92 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 7,233 | 9.3%675 W · 6,558 L | -1,116.1wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 22c | 60$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 632 | 47.3%299 W · 333 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x914a…9642backed Yes | 76c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 70cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 41c | 59.19$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.35 | 2,254 | 58.2%1,311 W · 943 L | +84.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 30c | 58.97$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.51 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 25c | 58.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.9 | 1,119 | 23.7%265 W · 854 L | +74.2wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 21c | 58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.68 | 3,139 | 49.6%1,558 W · 1,581 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 70c | 52.89$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.17 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 47c | 52.66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 2,286 | 57.3%1,309 W · 977 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8547…39abbacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 172 | 34.9%60 W · 112 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…e47abacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 198 | 31.8%63 W · 135 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8710…f9c7backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.05 | 269 | 35.7%96 W · 173 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 60c | 48.61$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.17 | 1,314 | 54%709 W · 605 L | -26.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 59c | 47.68$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.27 | 2,201 | 56.8%1,250 W · 951 L | +69.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8c…e802backed Yes | 26c | 46.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 193 | 36.3%70 W · 123 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked No | 73c | 45.94$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.53 | 169 | 58.6%99 W · 70 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 68c | 45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.45 | 5,836 | 60%3,502 W · 2,334 L | -112.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 218 | 33%72 W · 146 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.4 | 370 | 27.8%103 W · 267 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 1,014 | 51.6%523 W · 491 L | +108.5wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 41c | 38.85$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.97 | 439 | 47.6%209 W · 230 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54ab…c8dfbacked No | 79c | 37.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.05 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 41c | 37.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 2,295 | 59.3%1,360 W · 935 L | +118.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a66…8ce4backed Yes | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 79c | 34$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.75 | 412 | 74.8%308 W · 104 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 78c | 31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 504 | 62.3%314 W · 190 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 499 | 51.7%258 W · 241 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90e0…6307backed No | 79c | 28.86$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.93 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xda61…2b5fbacked No | 77c | 28.2$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.72 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 59c | 27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 493 | 63.5%313 W · 180 L | +14.2wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1fc…d98abacked Yes | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked No | 71c | 25.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 338 | 67.8%229 W · 109 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9a…0cd4backed No | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 133 | 51.9%69 W · 64 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 64c | 23.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 2,467 | 35.7%880 W · 1,587 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b8…e849backed No | 61c | 23.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ffc…e6ddbacked Yes | 62c | 21.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.11 | 74 | 58.1%43 W · 31 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6255…2718backed Yes | 72c | 21.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -82.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd670…1e02backed No | 77c | 20.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 255 | 64.7%165 W · 90 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…c1d0backed No | 61c | 20.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 211 | 46.9%99 W · 112 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a68…edd3backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 194 | 37.1%72 W · 122 L | -12.3wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on August 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on August 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.