Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on August 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8189c5addbee7bdcc3e023dda0b4b8916cbb34ecd50f61bae4ce0e0b63ac19e0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,286
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,671
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,286 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 116 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1a81…6cf9backed Yes | 40c | 1,433$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572.04 | 172 | 24.4%42 W · 130 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 31c | 1,033$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.1 | 621 | 46.2%287 W · 334 L | +40.0wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 56c | 624.85$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.65 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 72c | 589.94$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.02 | 629 | 60.3%379 W · 250 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 28c | 541.7$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.29 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 31c | 449.98$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.79 | 336 | 46.4%156 W · 180 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 70c | 435.2$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.41 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +28.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 74c | 434.82$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.5 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 27c | 396.01$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.48 | 665 | 21.8%145 W · 520 L | -27.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca1…fc25backed Yes | 33c | 387.76$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.5 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 61c | 340.53$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.44 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 47c | 336.21$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.68 | 260 | 38.5%100 W · 160 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 51c | 334.54$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.32 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 33c | 250.82$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.78 | 2,362 | 20.6%486 W · 1,876 L | -63.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed No | 74c | 235.97$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.35 | 251 | 58.6%147 W · 104 L | +14.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed Yes | 36c | 234$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.94 | 376 | 52.4%197 W · 179 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 68c | 220$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.4 | 8,337 | 49.2%4,098 W · 4,239 L | +271.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 64c | 214.83$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.9 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54ab…c8dfbacked Yes | 29c | 206.09$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.85 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34c1…1bb0backed Yes | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +9.1wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9c95…52dbbacked No | 61c | 185.46$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.24 | 189 | 47.6%90 W · 99 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked No | 59c | 170.68$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.48 | 535 | 48.2%258 W · 277 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 29c | 155.45$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.4 | 600 | 32%192 W · 408 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ac…cae8backed Yes | 26c | 153.85$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38d6…d072backed No | 76c | 149.88$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.34 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 44c | 148.86$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.54 | 431 | 53.1%229 W · 202 L | +25.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x90e0…6307backed Yes | 43c | 134.62$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed No | 74c | 133.2$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.53 | 262 | 53.8%141 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 52c | 125.99$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.27 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 62c | 121.88$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.69 | 2,189 | 59.7%1,306 W · 883 L | +26.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 27c | 121.25$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.92 | 218 | 33%72 W · 146 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7efd…caedbacked No | 57c | 116$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.33 | 173 | 25.4%44 W · 129 L | -12.2wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 58c | 105.4$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.09 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a72…d21fbacked Yes | 49c | 102$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 30c | 100.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 1,314 | 54%709 W · 605 L | -26.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 923 | 55.9%516 W · 407 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed No | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 188 | 29.8%56 W · 132 L | -12.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -25%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf67c…ae06backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb106…13f4backed No | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 144 | 55.6%80 W · 64 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…e47abacked No | 62c | 99.29$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.21 | 198 | 31.8%63 W · 135 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 26c | 98.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.43 | 1,154 | 25%289 W · 865 L | +30.0wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 69c | 97.73$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.23 | 10,044 | 44.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L | +257.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 76c | 96.8$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.39 | 2,201 | 62.2%1,370 W · 831 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed Yes | 29c | 91.97$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 290 | 51.4%149 W · 141 L | +25.4wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeec7…2fa1backed No | 57c | 86.07$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.01 | 68 | 64.7%44 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 69c | 81.72$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.73 | 2,176 | 53.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L | +36.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 41c | 80.92$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.14 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 58c | 80.75$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.84 | 412 | 74.8%308 W · 104 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x830b…c771backed Yes | 29c | 80$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked No | 68c | 79.72$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.44 | 582 | 47.8%278 W · 304 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…d06abacked No | 65c | 78.84$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.85 | 245 | 70.6%173 W · 72 L | +22.3wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 26c | 75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 1,301 | 32.9%428 W · 873 L | +24.5wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed Yes | 32c | 73$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 1,826 | 62.9%1,149 W · 677 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 55c | 72.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.77 | 2,254 | 58.2%1,311 W · 943 L | +84.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 34c | 68.45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb576…d959backed Yes | 40c | 63.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.44 | 100 | 33%33 W · 67 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -28%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 68c | 61.3$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 917 | 73.2%671 W · 246 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 51c | 60.86$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.04 | 447 | 60%268 W · 179 L | +18.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 467 | 36.8%172 W · 295 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 48c | 59.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 632 | 47.3%299 W · 333 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 77c | 58.89$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.28 | 2,254 | 56.9%1,283 W · 971 L | +69.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 60c | 56.45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.51 | 2,283 | 58.3%1,331 W · 952 L | +85.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 74c | 56$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 525 | 67%352 W · 173 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca4…6aa2backed Yes | 28c | 55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 142 | 40.1%57 W · 85 L | -11.1wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ff…6ab4backed No | 69c | 54.68$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.95 | 55 | 67.3%37 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 61c | 54.2$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda61…2b5fbacked Yes | 34c | 53.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed No | 61c | 51.52$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.15 | 141 | 54.6%77 W · 64 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c66…5c65backed Yes | 35c | 51.31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 70c | 50.07$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.16 | 2,216 | 56.8%1,258 W · 958 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc4…a136backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.73 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +4.9wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 269 | 35.7%96 W · 173 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9b…1e2abacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -4.0wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb530…3c03backed Yes | 28c | 49.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 79 | 13.9%11 W · 68 L | -7.4wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 54c | 46.7$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 2,233 | 56%1,250 W · 983 L | +47.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 49c | 45.11$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.19 | 5,836 | 60%3,502 W · 2,334 L | -112.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90b…da7cbacked Yes | 56c | 44.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…c1d0backed Yes | 31c | 43.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 211 | 46.9%99 W · 112 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 38c | 43.2$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.98 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61dd…cbd8backed No | 57c | 43.04$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.51 | 62 | 61.3%38 W · 24 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x532e…d5b1backed Yes | 47c | 42.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…b6c5backed No | 74c | 40.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 232 | 48.3%112 W · 120 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40cd…a73bbacked No | 63c | 39.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c3…92fcbacked No | 63c | 39.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 213 | 52.6%112 W · 101 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 33c | 38.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 786 | 27.1%213 W · 573 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 69c | 37.16$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 2,274 | 56.7%1,289 W · 985 L | +65.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f07…7573backed Yes | 43c | 35.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0018…83a4backed Yes | 59c | 33.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 76 | 30.3%23 W · 53 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed No | 74c | 33.28$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 212 | 52.8%112 W · 100 L | +15.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 58c | 33.25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 2,201 | 56.8%1,250 W · 951 L | +69.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b49…2e46backed No | 62c | 32.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.39 | 66 | 66.7%44 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 61c | 32.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.64 | 2,286 | 57.3%1,309 W · 977 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0022…c966backed No | 73c | 31.76$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 52 | 69.2%36 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 50c | 31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 504 | 62.3%314 W · 190 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked No | 58c | 30.61$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 169 | 58.6%99 W · 70 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 59c | 30.6$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.55 | 3,810 | 65.8%2,508 W · 1,302 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 76c | 29.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 2,434 | 79.4%1,933 W · 501 L | +99.7wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7c…34e7backed No | 56c | 29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 262 | 67.6%177 W · 85 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…34c4backed No | 69c | 28.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 323 | 82%265 W · 58 L | +32.7wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on August 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on August 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on August 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.