NFL · resolved market
Titans vs. Browns: O/U 33.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8a49f6b9a67161f0316fdeebaf4b3d1a1bdc696a85886ee377631f0876a4f92c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $66,555
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $66,836
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,555 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa2cc…0cbcbacked Under | 51c | 32,898$16,941 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,941.22 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 49c | 28,365$13,884 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,883.66 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Over | 48c | 20,672$9,923 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,749.56 | 141 | 54.6%77 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 51c | 15,164$7,731 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,433.12 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78ad…45ccbacked Over | 50c | 8,000$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,000 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 51c | 4,536$2,313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,222.51 | 544 | 51.7%281 W · 263 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x383d…a9f2backed Over | 48c | 2,330$1,118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,211.6 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 48c | 2,045$982 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$981.78 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d8…e9a1backed Over | 51c | 1,961$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960.78 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 50c | 1,804$910 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$894.47 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 52c | 1,668$867 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$801.18 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 51c | 1,477$753 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$723.73 | 568 | 52.3%297 W · 271 L | +26.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b88…5d08backed Over | 48c | 1,042$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.67 | 186 | 50%93 W · 93 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Over | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 154 | 46.8%72 W · 82 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64a2…4a7ebacked Over | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Over | 52c | 941.42$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.61 | 320 | 50.9%163 W · 157 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6723…a540backed Over | 52c | 821$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.08 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 51c | 554.21$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.57 | 346 | 52.9%183 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Over | 47c | 500$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265 | 194 | 39.2%76 W · 118 L | -11.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa313…e124backed Over | 48c | 312.5$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.5 | 166 | 48.2%80 W · 86 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…8919backed Over | 48c | 209$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.68 | 110 | 47.3%52 W · 58 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Over | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 133 | 47.4%63 W · 70 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…9652backed Over | 49c | 180$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.05 | 103 | 56.3%58 W · 45 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 50c | 173$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.5 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f1f…0b36backed Over | 49c | 150$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.5 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 51c | 137$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.87 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3f…4f9cbacked Under | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 114 | 58.8%67 W · 47 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Over | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 243 | 52.7%128 W · 115 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c6f…014ebacked Under | 51c | 76.43$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.98 | 62 | 33.9%21 W · 41 L | -6.4wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 49c | 54$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f23…b19ebacked Over | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -6.6wins | -0.10per pick | 59cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb740…2422backed Over | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 162 | 43.8%71 W · 91 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9d…3ea9backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 266 | 60.9%162 W · 104 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed Over | 51c | 33.94$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.63 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | +8.1wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef34…1d61backed Under | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 141 | 58.9%83 W · 58 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36e9…9c03backed Under | 49c | 20.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e2c…6aaebacked Over | 51c | 20.31$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.95 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 34cpaid | +78.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa966…208bbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 51 | 66.7%34 W · 17 L | +8.3wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Titans vs. Browns: O/U 33.5this page
- Spread: Browns (-3.5)Titans won
- Spread: Browns (-4.5)Titans won
- Titans vs. BrownsTitans won
- Titans vs. Browns: O/U 34.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.