NFL · resolved market
Spread: Browns (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6eb734bf97a94402fb8d9c13cb05f77f317b5eeafe47bfc6c4e16b1ce4b4a65e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Titansof Browns, Titans
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,606
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,649
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,606 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x53e5…6177backed Browns | 44c | 10,000$4,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,399.98 | 144 | 50%72 W · 72 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Titans | 56c | 9,765$5,468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,296.6 | 568 | 52.3%297 W · 271 L | +26.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Browns | 44c | 6,000$2,640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,639.98 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Titans | 55c | 5,618$3,101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,516.26 | 240 | 53.8%129 W · 111 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Titans | 56c | 5,606$3,139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,466.48 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Titans | 54c | 2,791$1,507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,283.73 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Browns | 45c | 2,674$1,195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,195.21 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Browns | 44c | 2,500$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 192 | 40.1%77 W · 115 L | -16.2wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…cabbbacked Browns | 47c | 2,120$996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$996 | 284 | 47.5%135 W · 149 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x856f…e1d7backed Browns | 46c | 1,875$862 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$862.49 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed Browns | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 266 | 50.8%135 W · 131 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Titans | 53c | 943.4$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.4 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc869…8a6ebacked Browns | 47c | 851.06$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 96 | 57.3%55 W · 41 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Titans | 56c | 709.84$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.09 | 363 | 41.9%152 W · 211 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Titans | 53c | 511.82$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.56 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a93…32a0backed Browns | 46c | 500$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 115 | 45.2%52 W · 63 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…73e9backed Titans | 56c | 400$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176 | 136 | 41.2%56 W · 80 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…f8bebacked Titans | 53c | 319.13$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.99 | 194 | 59.3%115 W · 79 L | +15.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Browns | 45c | 311.11$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 280 | 47.5%133 W · 147 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…168cbacked Browns | 46c | 300$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 122 | 50%61 W · 61 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3327…11debacked Browns | 47c | 255.32$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed Titans | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad5…6169backed Titans | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a8…1b66backed Titans | 54c | 186$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.56 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4627…b4b0backed Titans | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 58 | 69%40 W · 18 L | +7.7wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfd6f…e887backed Titans | 54c | 180$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.8 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Titans | 55c | 150$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02f7…b17abacked Titans | 55c | 120$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac97…a99ebacked Browns | 47c | 102.14$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.98 | 392 | 42.6%167 W · 225 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Titans | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 138 | 44.9%62 W · 76 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6941…efd5backed Titans | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 132 | 53%70 W · 62 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Titans | 56c | 87.5$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | +8.3wins | +0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Titans | 54c | 76.09$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 206 | 61.2%126 W · 80 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Browns | 46c | 76.09$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 158 | 55.7%88 W · 70 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd64…c090backed Browns | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -5.3wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9386…cfe5backed Browns | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Titans | 55c | 41.06$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 346 | 52.9%183 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d15…6914backed Titans | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Browns | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 109 | 40.4%44 W · 65 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Browns | 43c | 25.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Titans | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 154 | 46.8%72 W · 82 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Browns (-4.5)this page
- Spread: Browns (-3.5)Titans won
- Titans vs. BrownsTitans won
- Titans vs. Browns: O/U 33.5Over won
- Titans vs. Browns: O/U 34.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.