MLB · resolved market
Twins vs. Red Sox
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8a7d95ff2138f7bccfdb0393c61c8230eb13266c7e7930fcd8549c4ab866e3b0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Twinsof Twins, Red Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,778
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,321
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,778 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7ba5…aaf1backed Red Sox | 53c | 10,094$5,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,349.69 | 540 | 48.3%261 W · 279 L | -12.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7239…6591backed Red Sox | 51c | 7,873$4,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,015.13 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -5.2wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…dbbcbacked Twins | 47c | 7,411$3,483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,927.97 | 245 | 53.5%131 W · 114 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Twins | 76c | 3,738$2,841 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$897.17 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05b9…af0abacked Twins | 51c | 3,434$1,749 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,684.68 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf730…3de2backed Red Sox | 65c | 2,884$1,863 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,863.2 | 131 | 51.9%68 W · 63 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Red Sox | 22c | 2,518$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551.4 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…ddfabacked Twins | 47c | 2,000$940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,060 | 374 | 46.8%175 W · 199 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Twins | 50c | 1,227$619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$607.44 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Twins | 57c | 1,102$632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.47 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08ad…208ebacked Red Sox | 53c | 1,052$558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$557.81 | 217 | 40.1%87 W · 130 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf62d…d3a0backed Red Sox | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 150 | 50%75 W · 75 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f65…d7aebacked Red Sox | 59c | 1,000$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590 | 959 | 30%288 W · 671 L | -24.4wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Red Sox | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbde5…9c38backed Red Sox | 51c | 799.16$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.57 | 511 | 51.7%264 W · 247 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Twins | 49c | 774.05$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.77 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Twins | 47c | 768.59$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.17 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f3…d82cbacked Red Sox | 53c | 605.35$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.84 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Twins | 48c | 500$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 219 | 41.1%90 W · 129 L | -19.8wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xff5c…ccbdbacked Red Sox | 52c | 480.77$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 204 | 48.5%99 W · 105 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Twins | 48c | 423.17$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.05 | 867 | 51.8%449 W · 418 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Twins | 47c | 418.04$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.56 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd33b…4e00backed Twins | 48c | 312.5$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.5 | 98 | 54.1%53 W · 45 L | +8.4wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Red Sox | 52c | 308.71$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.53 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Twins | 48c | 299.99$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Twins | 47c | 296$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.88 | 235 | 45.5%107 W · 128 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Red Sox | 49c | 203.63$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.37 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Twins | 46c | 193.56$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.56 | 311 | 45.7%142 W · 169 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Red Sox | 53c | 189.15$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Red Sox | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Red Sox | 53c | 152.73$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.42 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdbf…c88ebacked Red Sox | 33c | 151.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 179 | 30.2%54 W · 125 L | -9.9wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cb…b857backed Twins | 44c | 149$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.44 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +5.2wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked Red Sox | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Twins | 47c | 74$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.22 | 229 | 46.3%106 W · 123 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Red Sox | 52c | 50.58$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf391…73c3backed Red Sox | 53c | 42.55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 295 | 52.2%154 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c75…154abacked Twins | 50c | 33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 68 | 60.3%41 W · 27 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x235a…2e57backed Twins | 48c | 32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 125 | 48%60 W · 65 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f19…72d9backed Twins | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 416 | 49%204 W · 212 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x459e…9931backed Red Sox | 65c | 15.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.