Serie A · resolved market
ACF Fiorentina vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8a7e02a36962a5b2f8c5a562c3276023f9d128ee32be7506ea0d5d5f4ea8bc86
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,666
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,148
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,666 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Under | 18c | 8,421$1,520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,520.41 | 38 | 7.9%3 W · 35 L | -5.0wins | -0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 53c | 5,862$3,127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,735.57 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 66c | 4,318$2,838 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,479.56 | 342 | 39.2%134 W · 208 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5634…d81abacked Under | 49c | 2,509$1,219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,219.45 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Over | 80c | 2,305$1,844 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.06 | 404 | 47.3%191 W · 213 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d96…7c16backed Over | 80c | 2,000$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 33c | 1,951$639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$638.99 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c7…44b7backed Under | 25c | 1,600$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64e7…50d1backed Under | 19c | 1,290$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 28c | 1,273$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.2 | 326 | 50.6%165 W · 161 L | +12.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12f9…74babacked Over | 73c | 1,207$886 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.59 | 95 | 76.8%73 W · 22 L | +20.8wins | +0.22per pick | 55cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa7…3fbabacked Under | 51c | 1,200$612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$611.99 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.29per pick | 42cpaid | +105.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f7…0c5abacked Under | 47c | 1,146$538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$538.39 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Over | 63c | 1,143$718 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.72 | 77 | 62.3%48 W · 29 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfff3…e2c5backed Under | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7409…65a6backed Over | 49c | 940.47$461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.64 | 52 | 71.2%37 W · 15 L | +7.4wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 48c | 502$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.96 | 107 | 59.8%64 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae5…4f22backed Over | 70c | 500$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 41c | 467.09$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.84 | 96 | 50%48 W · 48 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 41c | 467.09$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.84 | 199 | 52.8%105 W · 94 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 27c | 455$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.93 | 225 | 45.3%102 W · 123 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x210a…1080backed Over | 61c | 412.67$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.68 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.24per pick | 41cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd54a…f538backed Under | 43c | 400$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 80c | 300$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 364 | 56.3%205 W · 159 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98bd…8a55backed Over | 62c | 275.73$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.73 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf12d…0fddbacked Over | 58c | 258.71$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.71 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +6.0wins | +0.32per pick | 31cpaid | +137%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x690d…70adbacked Under | 35c | 254.43$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5902…59fabacked Over | 68c | 246.28$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.81 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.41per pick | 61cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e4…d1f7backed Under | 20c | 237.4$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.48 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +69.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 72c | 207.31$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.05 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d63…2e49backed Over | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Over | 80c | 186.55$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.31 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 49c | 169.4$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.39 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | +6.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa639…f5e8backed Over | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 119 | 55.5%66 W · 53 L | +12.4wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf00e…00f4backed Over | 73c | 161.04$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.48 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 66c | 160$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.4 | 143 | 51%73 W · 70 L | -10.8wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 73c | 139.43$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.45 | 217 | 48.8%106 W · 111 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41a3…017dbacked Over | 75c | 132.8$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee19…555ebacked Under | 14c | 126.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 80c | 119.19$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.84 | 985 | 44.9%442 W · 543 L | -17.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebc…01c6backed Under | 29c | 112.67$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 58c | 104.4$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.35 | 90 | 56.7%51 W · 39 L | +10.8wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x56e2…4a79backed Over | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1e…522fbacked Over | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +40%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 73c | 90$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 82 | 42.7%35 W · 47 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ec5…fd53backed Under | 40c | 87.7$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -39%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18b6…babfbacked Under | 35c | 84.29$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa24d…38b2backed Under | 42c | 83.33$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Over | 80c | 78.21$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 393 | 54.2%213 W · 180 L | +17.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Under | 18c | 77.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 249 | 53.8%134 W · 115 L | +20.7wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +12%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 58c | 70$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 345 | 53.9%186 W · 159 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 19c | 66.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 274 | 53.3%146 W · 128 L | +18.0wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe16…60bebacked Under | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Under | 35c | 60.8$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb48e…95b3backed Under | 51c | 55.52$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Under | 20c | 54.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b53…95c4backed Over | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…e63cbacked Over | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b81…88e7backed Under | 27c | 40.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49a9…82b9backed Over | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Over | 80c | 39.02$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 430 | 58.6%252 W · 178 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9df2…99f5backed Over | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Under | 38c | 29.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 95 | 42.1%40 W · 55 L | -6.7wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Over | 72c | 28.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc1…b855backed Over | 56c | 25.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.51 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…ee5abacked Over | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 71 | 38%27 W · 44 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e7…eed5backed Under | 49c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0154…30f7backed Over | 71c | 19.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- ACF Fiorentina vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 1.5this page
- ACF Fiorentina vs. Atalanta BC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- ACF Fiorentina vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 0.5Over won
- ACF Fiorentina vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 2.5Under won
- ACF Fiorentina vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 3.5Under won
- ACF Fiorentina vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 4.5Under won
- ACF Fiorentina vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: ACF Fiorentina (-1.5)Atalanta BC won
- Spread: ACF Fiorentina (-2.5)Atalanta BC won
- Spread: Atalanta BC (-1.5)ACF Fiorentina won
- Spread: Atalanta BC (-2.5)ACF Fiorentina won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.