Serie A · resolved market
Bologna FC 1909 vs. US Cremonese: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8a8a09d158b707f3e199903f5544b85423902bf19eb5998b65095b8e3fdb9258
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,975
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,979
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,975 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0fb5…cdb0backed Under | 53c | 8,166$4,348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,347.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 47c | 4,619$2,162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,457.59 | 969 | 42.3%410 W · 559 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7087…c61fbacked Under | 50c | 3,000$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09c6…4cb8backed Over | 50c | 1,580$790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$790 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 48c | 1,112$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533.53 | 118 | 48.3%57 W · 61 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…7d78backed Under | 8c | 906.93$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.75 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dcf…146ebacked Over | 52c | 874$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.52 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +3.2wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd5c…8ae8backed Over | 50c | 800$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x775e…6541backed Over | 52c | 700$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…2c8bbacked Over | 51c | 588.24$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.24 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x250e…b699backed Over | 51c | 500$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 41c | 473.64$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.29 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1d…6a8bbacked Over | 50c | 414.46$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.23 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6125…fb3abacked Over | 52c | 401.92$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f6…5ac8backed Over | 49c | 302.14$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.14 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aea…ec91backed Over | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Under | 56c | 250$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ef…cb71backed Over | 52c | 219.81$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.51 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 47c | 209$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.21 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…1742backed Over | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x748f…59d0backed Under | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0e…5b17backed Over | 48c | 164.58$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.58 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.41per pick | 34cpaid | +171.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 49c | 144$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.56 | 387 | 44.7%173 W · 214 L | -10.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc213…80f7backed Over | 52c | 115.38$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.38 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 37cpaid | +122.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 455 | 47%214 W · 241 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Over | 47c | 97.87$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.87 | 339 | 51.6%175 W · 164 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa87b…968bbacked Over | 49c | 97.1$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.52 | 47 | 27.7%13 W · 34 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Under | 50c | 94.46$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.23 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba49…a4a1backed Over | 46c | 86.96$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.96 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc049…48abbacked Over | 51c | 80.39$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.39 | 107 | 36.4%39 W · 68 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x499e…c968backed Over | 52c | 71.15$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.15 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x024e…2e48backed Over | 51c | 70$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.3 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +5.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 42c | 69.37$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.05 | 248 | 49.2%122 W · 126 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 49c | 59.22$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.2 | 527 | 48%253 W · 274 L | -35.4wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e86…fffebacked Over | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Under | 50c | 43.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.57 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -6.5wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9b…829ebacked Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 123 | 47.2%58 W · 65 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…7adabacked Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedb5…ce8ebacked Over | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 51c | 29.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 69 | 72.5%50 W · 19 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x423d…c621backed Over | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef41…2473backed Over | 47c | 23.62$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.52 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. US Cremonese: O/U 2.5this page
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. US Cremonese: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. US Cremonese: O/U 1.5Over won
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. US Cremonese: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: Bologna FC 1909 (-1.5)US Cremonese won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.