Serie A · resolved market
Bologna FC 1909 vs. US Cremonese: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xea4d5b73711ead5234a35ca1f4648f518ea8fd09c1d5bede2f7c6558afcc5c0f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $108,296
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $157,531
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $108,296 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc99b…bc96backed Over | 76c | 48,080$36,541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,539.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 24c | 30,541$7,335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,334.8 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 25c | 6,689$1,661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,660.79 | 969 | 42.3%410 W · 559 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 24c | 6,300$1,512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,511.97 | 455 | 47%214 W · 241 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…7d78backed Under | 27c | 2,349$642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$642.17 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Under | 24c | 1,413$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.91 | 155 | 50.3%78 W · 77 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x748f…59d0backed Under | 27c | 740.74$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 72c | 640.02$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.81 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9eca…fc20backed Over | 77c | 600.36$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.1 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 73cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x889c…e375backed Under | 26c | 576.92$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +3.4wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 18c | 562.99$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.98 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Under | 24c | 500.32$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.08 | 208 | 27.9%58 W · 150 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd88e…ef1bbacked Under | 27c | 347.13$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.52 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50bb…9aa6backed Under | 24c | 200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 74c | 139.48$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.26 | 333 | 57.4%191 W · 142 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc450…f2f7backed Over | 73c | 130.14$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 71cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x07ce…75e0backed Over | 75c | 120.08$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.08 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 73cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef2…50e0backed Over | 75c | 120$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 24c | 110$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 289 | 31.8%92 W · 197 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 24c | 82.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 272 | 26.8%73 W · 199 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc9…58c7backed Over | 64c | 82.08$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.55 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 61cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8816…7082backed Over | 75c | 80.62$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.87 | 109 | 51.4%56 W · 53 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7795…1db8backed Under | 27c | 74.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 76c | 74$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.76 | 176 | 51.7%91 W · 85 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Over | 69c | 49.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 25c | 46.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 387 | 44.7%173 W · 214 L | -10.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf94c…8a42backed Under | 25c | 40.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb89…46f1backed Over | 76c | 33.27$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03dc…132abacked Over | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7f…d5bdbacked Over | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +3.3wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x92d3…5ee5backed Over | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ea…d81abacked Over | 73c | 25.95$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24b8…6a66backed Over | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. US Cremonese: O/U 1.5this page
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. US Cremonese: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. US Cremonese: O/U 2.5Over won
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. US Cremonese: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: Bologna FC 1909 (-1.5)US Cremonese won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.