Serie A · resolved market
Bologna FC 1909 vs. US Cremonese: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3d0fc1ed9dfcb84d531dee4f8c3e6d7a4134174c84a4c157f839ec7433d51baa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,605
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,953
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,605 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 8c | 1,396$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.88 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4446…1fd0backed Under | 78c | 1,282$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 27c | 1,147$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$841.77 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 22c | 946.32$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$733.45 | 969 | 42.3%410 W · 559 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over | 58c | 427$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.25 | 284 | 45.4%129 W · 155 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Under | 73c | 410.96$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 106 | 50%53 W · 53 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Over | 27c | 405.96$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.35 | 208 | 27.9%58 W · 150 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4341…6451backed Over | 30c | 286.67$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.67 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9d…e6c3backed Under | 17c | 198.71$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.78 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…0419backed Under | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaffb…9801backed Under | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.1wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb78d…1d48backed Under | 73c | 100$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Over | 30c | 80.87$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.71 | 121 | 34.7%42 W · 79 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 70c | 77$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.96 | 333 | 57.4%191 W · 142 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 46c | 74.07$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.07 | 932 | 52%485 W · 447 L | +11.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Over | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 267 | 44.6%119 W · 148 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Over | 27c | 74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.02 | 272 | 26.8%73 W · 199 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7658…28bcbacked Under | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…7d78backed Over | 37c | 61.73$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.73 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x024e…2e48backed Over | 29c | 60$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.6 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +5.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 60c | 53$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 176 | 51.7%91 W · 85 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3827…8f92backed Under | 78c | 50.96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 79cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Over | 27c | 48.05$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 155 | 50.3%78 W · 77 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e1…1b07backed Under | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed Over | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 171 | 42.7%73 W · 98 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1f…d9c3backed Under | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 75cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5007…493fbacked Under | 73c | 19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. US Cremonese: O/U 3.5this page
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. US Cremonese: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. US Cremonese: O/U 1.5Over won
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. US Cremonese: O/U 2.5Over won
- Spread: Bologna FC 1909 (-1.5)US Cremonese won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.