MLB · resolved market
New York Mets vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8a99ceee6c3fb3fc93799b867864456c0c8ca02e24a3bcf9ddad2582ec8831cd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,017
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,060
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,017 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d7a…b22fbacked Over | 46c | 4,502$2,068 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,067.66 | 125 | 51.2%64 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfac7…78ebbacked Under | 53c | 1,834$972 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$861.78 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1e6…1dc1backed Under | 52c | 1,244$647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$596.98 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Over | 47c | 1,100$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 54c | 967.06$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.85 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 54c | 905.69$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.62 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c5b…cc75backed Over | 48c | 863.85$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.65 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e1…d80bbacked Over | 45c | 640.1$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.16 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 54c | 582.26$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.84 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3df…82fabacked Under | 54c | 345.02$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.71 | 488 | 50.2%245 W · 243 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 54c | 180$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.8 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 49c | 142.85$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Under | 51c | 138.8$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.01 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…c7a2backed Over | 46c | 105.17$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.38 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 217 | 48.4%105 W · 112 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 55c | 89.84$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.43 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 54c | 89.41$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.13 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec66…e58fbacked Under | 55c | 77.84$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.03 | 312 | 50%156 W · 156 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb81e…8ab9backed Under | 55c | 71.03$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.96 | 478 | 48.5%232 W · 246 L | -15.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Over | 45c | 69.58$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.31 | 232 | 48.7%113 W · 119 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed Under | 55c | 53.07$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.88 | 412 | 49.5%204 W · 208 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 55c | 48.17$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.8 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 54c | 42$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 283 | 52.3%148 W · 135 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…7936backed Over | 48c | 40.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68cc…e8c8backed Under | 55c | 35.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 326 | 47.9%156 W · 170 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Under | 56c | 34.77$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca9…0898backed Under | 56c | 34.15$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.03 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca20…7b68backed Over | 46c | 31.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 371 | 43.9%163 W · 208 L | -21.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ee…0f22backed Over | 46c | 27.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Under | 55c | 26.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.94 | 465 | 57.2%266 W · 199 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bbd…98f2backed Over | 45c | 26.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Under | 55c | 24.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.99 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 55c | 22.91$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 55c | 22.87$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7770…f99bbacked Under | 56c | 21.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -5.8wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Under | 53c | 19.44$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Mets vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5this page
- New York Mets vs. Chicago CubsChicago Cubs won
- New York Mets vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 4.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 5.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Chicago CubsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.