MLB · resolved market
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd6e6697544eab54bb1116dea9f667495f1d43d0c2b9906a596d0747e3c5a7f68
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chicago Cubsof New York Mets, Chicago Cubs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,151
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,844
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,151 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9ea8…c8bdbacked New York Mets | 0c | 18,662$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf165…d277backed New York Mets | 0c | 12,382$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked New York Mets | 73c | 2,599$1,888 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,887.65 | 191 | 43.5%83 W · 108 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed New York Mets | 34c | 933.46$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.38 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed New York Mets | 9c | 785.63$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.8 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Chicago Cubs | 66c | 766.26$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.53 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x198f…c419backed New York Mets | 28c | 689.01$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.64 | 115 | 40%46 W · 69 L | -7.1wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed New York Mets | 5c | 540.37$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.44 | 105 | 48.6%51 W · 54 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc775…6b22backed Chicago Cubs | 10c | 399.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.99 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 7cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e88…9b64backed Chicago Cubs | 14c | 300$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 9cpaid | +97.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xceb1…bd4fbacked Chicago Cubs | 5c | 300$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285 | 49 | 8.2%4 W · 45 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | +173.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7b…440fbacked Chicago Cubs | 5c | 300$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285 | 39 | 5.1%2 W · 37 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5124…d922backed Chicago Cubs | 14c | 300$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | +5.4wins | +0.11per pick | 7cpaid | +162.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Chicago Cubs | 66c | 297.53$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.02 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2116…eb8fbacked Chicago Cubs | 9c | 223.33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.33 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.22per pick | 16cpaid | +180.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked Chicago Cubs | 75c | 183.99$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.64 | 554 | 64.1%355 W · 199 L | +63.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Chicago Cubs | 77c | 181.51$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.89 | 515 | 55%283 W · 232 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…1635backed Chicago Cubs | 77c | 97.4$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 529 | 55.6%294 W · 235 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -10%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked New York Mets | 23c | 92.9$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.37 | 1,722 | 50.3%867 W · 855 L | +55.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe977…700fbacked Chicago Cubs | 16c | 88.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.63 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.44per pick | 16cpaid | +207%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x80aa…e8eabacked Chicago Cubs | 22c | 85.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.35 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 11cpaid | +93.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Chicago Cubs | 71c | 84.29$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.47 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed New York Mets | 34c | 71.17$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.01 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed New York Mets | 34c | 71.17$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.01 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8956…755fbacked Chicago Cubs | 69c | 71.12$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 216 | 56%121 W · 95 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce5f…ab17backed Chicago Cubs | 42c | 70$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.3 | 353 | 41.1%145 W · 208 L | -16.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed New York Mets | 41c | 67.53$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.83 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked New York Mets | 23c | 61.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8911…5ffabacked New York Mets | 38c | 50.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed New York Mets | 49c | 48.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.54 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Chicago Cubs | 79c | 43.57$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 6,302 | 48.3%3,041 W · 3,261 L | +181.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed Chicago Cubs | 77c | 38.15$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.77 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5a…59b9backed New York Mets | 38c | 38.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a0c…3d4dbacked New York Mets | 33c | 37.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 174 | 50.6%88 W · 86 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked New York Mets | 30c | 35.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Chicago Cubs | 66c | 35.19$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e3…ff82backed New York Mets | 36c | 28.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -4.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb3d…58f5backed New York Mets | 72c | 26.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.9wins | -0.25per pick | 56cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Chicago Cubs | 64c | 24.78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Chicago Cubs | 67c | 24.29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.11 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c2…5509backed Chicago Cubs | 77c | 22.41$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 221 | 54.3%120 W · 101 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Chicago Cubs | 77c | 19.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.54 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)this page
- New York Mets vs. Chicago CubsChicago Cubs won
- New York Mets vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 4.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 5.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Chicago CubsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.