TailMyPicks

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Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: REKONIX vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Nigma Galaxyof REKONIX, Nigma Galaxy
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$83,534
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$97,656

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $83,534 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 105 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf3ce…a57abacked Nigma Galaxy62c13,004$8,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,003.811,20259.3%713 W · 489 L+64.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6c66…c204backed Nigma Galaxy53c8,000$4,201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,798.961353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb234…1c20backed REKONIX39c6,000$2,318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,317.629042.1%122 W · 168 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked REKONIX42c4,250$1,775 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,775.480256%449 W · 353 L+22.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked Nigma Galaxy49c4,050$1,987 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,063.031,18643.2%512 W · 674 L+42.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked REKONIX39c4,000$1,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,56019847%93 W · 105 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked REKONIX45c3,079$1,390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,390.0896645.1%436 W · 530 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x31a4…7afcbacked Nigma Galaxy61c2,700$1,647 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,05395342.2%402 W · 551 L-20.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked REKONIX39c1,872$726 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$726.2434544.3%153 W · 192 L-15.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-11.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x04f6…f24abacked REKONIX49c1,862$908 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$907.6650347.1%237 W · 266 L+14.9wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa35c…a113backed REKONIX43c1,548$666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66661745.7%282 W · 335 L-12.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2761…4d95backed REKONIX49c1,528$744 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$743.6144645.7%204 W · 242 L+0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked REKONIX46c1,516$693 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$693.0177256.5%436 W · 336 L+30.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked REKONIX48c1,455$693 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$692.581,15547.8%552 W · 603 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xacf6…41fcbacked REKONIX43c1,328$567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$567.4860646.9%284 W · 322 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed Nigma Galaxy57c1,300$741 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55979959.4%475 W · 324 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xab04…a00abacked Nigma Galaxy50c1,220$610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61037945.9%174 W · 205 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54a6…7401backed REKONIX40c1,111$444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$444.47742.9%33 W · 44 L-5.5wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-14.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe37e…6d97backed REKONIX46c1,078$496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4966163.9%39 W · 22 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd8b5…54c4backed Nigma Galaxy53c1,035$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$484.6529240.8%119 W · 173 L+0.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa14c…23a1backed REKONIX39c1,016$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$396.2435151.3%180 W · 171 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x47bd…bc9dbacked Nigma Galaxy62c1,000$620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38041055.6%228 W · 182 L-9.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-3.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe361…ae44backed Nigma Galaxy57c1,000$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43031547.6%150 W · 165 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed REKONIX38c916$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.0856955.5%316 W · 253 L+22.1wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed REKONIX44c908.28$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.681,03647.2%489 W · 547 L+15.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6eac…ed37backed Nigma Galaxy55c880.96$487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$393.8257449%281 W · 293 L+33.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+12.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked REKONIX38c845.75$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.961,28045%576 W · 704 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad4d…dd89backed REKONIX40c804.3$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.467736.4%28 W · 49 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Nigma Galaxy54c794.39$433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361.761,16447.2%549 W · 615 L-29.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4133…165bbacked Nigma Galaxy70c782.65$551 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.021,27533.5%427 W · 848 L-15.6wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Nigma Galaxy55c704.6$387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$317.111,90147.6%905 W · 996 L+4.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Nigma Galaxy55c695.41$383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.071,15447.7%550 W · 604 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed REKONIX41c644.69$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.3249455.1%272 W · 222 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1311…d450backed REKONIX48c600$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28821146.9%99 W · 112 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c67…d062backed REKONIX68c588.24$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4001,13742.3%481 W · 656 L-27.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1365…c82abacked REKONIX43c576.36$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.5261456%344 W · 270 L+13.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Nigma Galaxy56c570.75$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.471,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b99…8bddbacked Nigma Galaxy60c548.54$331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.2677458.5%453 W · 321 L+75.1wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xdf27…026fbacked Nigma Galaxy59c500$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20565863.1%415 W · 243 L+17.5wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9a8e…9408backed Nigma Galaxy54c499.99$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23096245.5%438 W · 524 L+22.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a8c…fd3dbacked REKONIX41c487.8$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20048539.2%190 W · 295 L-8.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed REKONIX6c482.5$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.926132.1%13 W · 600 L-23.4wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-76.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked REKONIX56c446$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.5789749.6%445 W · 452 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7253…5fa2backed REKONIX45c437.33$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.85850%29 W · 29 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+19%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x00a1…5062backed REKONIX46c434.78$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20021346.5%99 W · 114 L-8.1wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-10.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed REKONIX50c349$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.568649.7%341 W · 345 L+9.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5054…0aafbacked REKONIX39c338.2$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.913851.4%71 W · 67 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x209e…8bb4backed REKONIX38c317.42$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.6280544.6%359 W · 446 L-25.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7cbf…c53cbacked Nigma Galaxy62c311.59$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.592458.3%14 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x473f…9892backed Nigma Galaxy52c288.45$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.4650053%265 W · 235 L+14.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a7c…8964backed REKONIX39c283$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.3741050.2%206 W · 204 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40db…ca8cbacked Nigma Galaxy66c260$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.254058.9%318 W · 222 L+17.4wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked REKONIX33c243.17$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.061,70241.2%701 W · 1,001 L-44.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-26.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked REKONIX40c234.87$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.711,06657%608 W · 458 L+52.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8fa6…dbd6backed Nigma Galaxy77c233.22$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.2222961.1%140 W · 89 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x96ef…cca4backed REKONIX43c219.02$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.3416242.6%69 W · 93 L-6.2wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd991…c1dabacked REKONIX46c218.7$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002944.8%13 W · 16 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-8.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2775…3652backed REKONIX49c204.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10033041.8%138 W · 192 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbc9c…b01cbacked Nigma Galaxy57c193.53$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.087034.3%24 W · 46 L-7.3wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-30.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x810b…0848backed REKONIX22c185.11$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4013144.3%58 W · 73 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9688…fd45backed REKONIX30c167.79$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.7124138.6%93 W · 148 L-18.0wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-19.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed REKONIX40c166.37$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.112,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed Nigma Galaxy57c165.56$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.511,01345.5%461 W · 552 L-46.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-18.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Nigma Galaxy59c163.73$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.91,45848.5%707 W · 751 L+27.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1863…6174backed Nigma Galaxy62c161.45$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.4530460.2%183 W · 121 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c1e…9514backed Nigma Galaxy62c161.29$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.2986451.7%447 W · 417 L+20.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Nigma Galaxy56c154.55$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.071,26049.7%626 W · 634 L+21.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8dd4…7401backed REKONIX34c150$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.8735430.5%108 W · 246 L-27.2wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-41.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x30d1…2ecdbacked REKONIX16c144.99$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.0512533.6%42 W · 83 L+0.5wins0.00per pick33cpaid-22.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1d1…6a15backed Nigma Galaxy57c134.12$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.753023.3%7 W · 23 L-6.2wins-0.21per pick44cpaid-58.9%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x2133…7903backed REKONIX26c134$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.8434443.9%151 W · 193 L-0.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid-10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed REKONIX20c128.1$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.971,12036.1%404 W · 716 L-39.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-31.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5088…cfc5backed Nigma Galaxy60c124.38$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.388647.7%41 W · 45 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc52…dfcebacked Nigma Galaxy60c120$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4814454.2%78 W · 66 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x38c5…0f5cbacked REKONIX41c115.99$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.3558250.5%294 W · 288 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x98a7…b766backed REKONIX49c100$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4960251.2%308 W · 294 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd439…21d3backed REKONIX30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3031644.9%142 W · 174 L-18.9wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-17.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf98b…57bbbacked REKONIX48c100$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4841864.1%268 W · 150 L+17.2wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked REKONIX63c96$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.4889938%342 W · 557 L-45.9wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-30%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed REKONIX38c95.79$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.41,24844.4%554 W · 694 L+17.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x596a…7a0fbacked REKONIX40c90$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3670236.6%257 W · 445 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e4d…1cb0backed Nigma Galaxy54c72.47$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.2957654.5%314 W · 262 L+29.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+2.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked REKONIX43c70.61$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.5553538.5%206 W · 329 L-26.6wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-31.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1025…fbfabacked REKONIX43c69.77$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3030255.3%167 W · 135 L+10.5wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xad22…014abacked Nigma Galaxy61c65$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.3547358.6%277 W · 196 L+25.0wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+10.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xba50…ad0bbacked REKONIX40c62.77$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.1139550.1%198 W · 197 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7e3e…a78abacked REKONIX58c60$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.6141244.7%184 W · 228 L-10.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x24bb…3e49backed REKONIX27c57.62$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5665337.2%243 W · 410 L-15.1wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-28.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked REKONIX44c55.01$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.212,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdcb8…6b51backed Nigma Galaxy46c53.83$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.8442053.6%225 W · 195 L+16.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7b25…10aabacked Nigma Galaxy55c53.33$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.7727952.3%146 W · 133 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed REKONIX44c52.72$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.265647.3%310 W · 346 L-8.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x02a4…6854backed Nigma Galaxy60c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201,79755.8%1,003 W · 794 L+37.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Nigma Galaxy59c47.84$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.612,37847.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L+15.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57d5…0bbdbacked REKONIX34c44.69$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3353139.5%210 W · 321 L-37.2wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-29.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xc6c3…a6e8backed Nigma Galaxy60c40$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1637851.1%193 W · 185 L-1.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed Nigma Galaxy58c39$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.3256548%271 W · 294 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x127e…cca1backed Nigma Galaxy58c37.79$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.7946150.8%234 W · 227 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6725…1bf9backed Nigma Galaxy56c35.56$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.5623838.2%91 W · 147 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c82…5a52backed REKONIX43c30.23$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1323459%138 W · 96 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.