MLB · resolved market
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8ac1b01549af64271106e879e09e04685e81ae7cf24eb0398dd06c4b666bb53a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,078
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,630
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,078 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 56c | 1,941$1,087 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$854 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 54c | 1,331$724 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$606.85 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e4a…eee7backed Over | 44c | 1,143$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 308 | 44.2%136 W · 172 L | -10.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21b7…c861backed Over | 42c | 999.97$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.99 | 149 | 38.3%57 W · 92 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 46c | 961.75$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.6 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 43c | 918.85$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.85 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55d8…b384backed Over | 43c | 765.7$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.01 | 577 | 44.7%258 W · 319 L | -6.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd38…99d4backed Over | 44c | 700$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308 | 267 | 59.2%158 W · 109 L | +17.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 60c | 606.11$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.56 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 57c | 449.29$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.19 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 59c | 442.11$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.43 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Under | 56c | 256.29$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Over | 36c | 197.76$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.97 | 393 | 44.3%174 W · 219 L | -22.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…d984backed Under | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 383 | 53.8%206 W · 177 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 58c | 175$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.7 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd10…f782backed Under | 65c | 158$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.3 | 134 | 47.8%64 W · 70 L | -7.1wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 59c | 125.37$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.54 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 73c | 111.37$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.05 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce8…fc49backed Over | 42c | 98.7$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.13 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 57c | 97.27$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.48 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 36c | 90.67$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.83 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Over | 42c | 80$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 57c | 72.76$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.27 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 54c | 71.35$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.82 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 44c | 71.25$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.68 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Under | 35c | 68.95$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.88 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f59…bd2dbacked Under | 50c | 57.49$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.49 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2bfa…8b61backed Under | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 183 | 56.8%104 W · 79 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Under | 56c | 50.46$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Under | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 418 | 36.4%152 W · 266 L | -31.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3169…6dccbacked Over | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 150 | 45.3%68 W · 82 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Under | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 58c | 40.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.18 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…576ebacked Over | 43c | 38.41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 229 | 48%110 W · 119 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked Under | 56c | 37.8$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.63 | 143 | 53.1%76 W · 67 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Under | 56c | 33.91$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.92 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 69c | 32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 62c | 31.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 418 | 47.6%199 W · 219 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Under | 50c | 29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 327 | 51.7%169 W · 158 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 42c | 26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c38…291fbacked Under | 50c | 25.44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 113 | 46.9%53 W · 60 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfca2…e2a0backed Under | 59c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.19per pick | 50cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb633…871abacked Under | 62c | 18.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 56c | 18.18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 297 | 52.5%156 W · 141 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5this page
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Washington NationalsMilwaukee Brewers won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 5.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 6.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5)Washington Nationals won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Milwaukee Brewers vs. Washington NationalsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.