MLB · resolved market
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xac790ff61749d1b1c9f6de9c4029eea572556fae7f03b7a7ae75aa5558e2e072
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Milwaukee Brewersof Milwaukee Brewers, Washington Nationals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,879
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,849
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,879 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf405…9df2backed Milwaukee Brewers | 63c | 1,589$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$588.9 | 250 | 66.4%166 W · 84 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Washington Nationals | 39c | 1,385$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$546.49 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Washington Nationals | 60c | 960.92$573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$573.09 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Washington Nationals | 35c | 796.5$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.83 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55d8…b384backed Milwaukee Brewers | 42c | 793.67$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.66 | 577 | 44.7%258 W · 319 L | -6.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Washington Nationals | 58c | 767.81$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.33 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Washington Nationals | 59c | 765.55$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.67 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Milwaukee Brewers | 59c | 518.46$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.43 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Milwaukee Brewers | 41c | 449.55$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.23 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Milwaukee Brewers | 40c | 441.68$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.56 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e2d…5116backed Milwaukee Brewers | 42c | 285.71$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.71 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Milwaukee Brewers | 40c | 245.42$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.25 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66f0…1229backed Milwaukee Brewers | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Washington Nationals | 58c | 164.84$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.61 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Washington Nationals | 40c | 155.6$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.24 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Milwaukee Brewers | 44c | 130.24$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.93 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Milwaukee Brewers | 38c | 126.77$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.6 | 399 | 48.1%192 W · 207 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Milwaukee Brewers | 60c | 124.68$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.37 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 51c | 101.49$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.73 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Washington Nationals | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Washington Nationals | 28c | 97.07$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 60c | 93.2$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.33 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Milwaukee Brewers | 58c | 92.86$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.64 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Milwaukee Brewers | 55c | 89.69$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.18 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Washington Nationals | 25c | 85.42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.63 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…3a3fbacked Washington Nationals | 38c | 62.68$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.82 | 116 | 37.9%44 W · 72 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2827…64f6backed Milwaukee Brewers | 41c | 57.37$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.85 | 207 | 64.7%134 W · 73 L | +21.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Milwaukee Brewers | 40c | 56$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Milwaukee Brewers | 42c | 55$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.9 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Milwaukee Brewers | 73c | 54.21$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Washington Nationals | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f50…069bbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 42c | 47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.26 | 163 | 45.4%74 W · 89 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Washington Nationals | 39c | 45.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Washington Nationals | 47c | 40.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 418 | 36.4%152 W · 266 L | -31.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x445b…cc32backed Milwaukee Brewers | 67c | 37.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -24%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ff…ec82backed Milwaukee Brewers | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.59 | 215 | 54.9%118 W · 97 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec45…6c6dbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 57c | 32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 170 | 58.2%99 W · 71 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 39c | 26.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.41 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Milwaukee Brewers | 64c | 25.18$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 290 | 47.6%138 W · 152 L | -11.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31c8…9487backed Milwaukee Brewers | 61c | 25.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.67 | 270 | 53.7%145 W · 125 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9eaf…22d5backed Washington Nationals | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 51c | 24.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.06 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6526…2c8ebacked Milwaukee Brewers | 42c | 24.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.98 | 50 | 18%9 W · 41 L | -8.4wins | -0.17per pick | 35cpaid | -54%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Washington Nationals | 59c | 24.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 443 | 47.9%212 W · 231 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce8…fc49backed Milwaukee Brewers | 79c | 23.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfca2…e2a0backed Washington Nationals | 63c | 22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.19per pick | 50cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Washington Nationals | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Washington Nationals | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Washington Nationals | 62c | 18.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 524 | 49%257 W · 267 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)this page
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Washington NationalsMilwaukee Brewers won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 5.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 6.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5)Washington Nationals won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Milwaukee Brewers vs. Washington NationalsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.