College Football · resolved market
Spread: Memphis (-14.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8ade92827a2507f6b6cae8d7c8d338d352637f319c19e9d7fcbe16d9e1cf1020
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Memphisof Memphis, Rice
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,281
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,152
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,281 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Memphis | 48c | 24,426$11,694 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,732.49 | 684 | 40.8%279 W · 405 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2f…eca9backed Rice | 52c | 10,000$5,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,200 | 95 | 40%38 W · 57 L | -6.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Rice | 52c | 8,926$4,678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,677.97 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Rice | 52c | 2,822$1,468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,467.55 | 859 | 47.7%410 W · 449 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Rice | 51c | 1,876$957 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$956.76 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Memphis | 47c | 1,811$851 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$959.83 | 526 | 41.8%220 W · 306 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Memphis | 48c | 1,196$574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$621.92 | 342 | 50.3%172 W · 170 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcea…e87dbacked Rice | 53c | 505$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.65 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Rice | 54c | 503.7$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272 | 213 | 48.8%104 W · 109 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56c2…17bfbacked Memphis | 46c | 503.7$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Rice | 52c | 493.75$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.73 | 756 | 51.9%392 W · 364 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Memphis | 45c | 342.55$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.4 | 134 | 50.7%68 W · 66 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8532…738bbacked Rice | 53c | 300$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 99 | 47.5%47 W · 52 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed Rice | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 135 | 48.9%66 W · 69 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Rice | 53c | 190$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.7 | 568 | 44.5%253 W · 315 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc47e…8ae4backed Rice | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Rice | 53c | 165$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.45 | 492 | 53.5%263 W · 229 L | +7.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d8…66a7backed Rice | 55c | 130.91$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda81…29c0backed Rice | 54c | 50.5$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x288e…812fbacked Memphis | 46c | 50.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ee1…dddcbacked Rice | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadc7…c056backed Memphis | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f96…fdb5backed Rice | 54c | 47.3$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496a…db23backed Memphis | 46c | 47.3$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3778…8c7fbacked Rice | 54c | 47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29dd…6db4backed Memphis | 46c | 47$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Memphis | 47c | 43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.79 | 244 | 36.9%90 W · 154 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Memphis (-14.5)this page
- Memphis vs. RiceMemphis won
- Memphis vs. Rice: O/U 48.5Over won
- O/U 49.5Over won
- Spread: Memphis (-13.5)Memphis won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.