College Football · resolved market
Spread: Memphis (-13.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x73ecf46f3c00a47b5e71e3a395a8cabafc5ef51fddcfb8027937eacba591240f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Memphisof Memphis, Rice
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,732
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,763
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,732 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Memphis | 52c | 16,775$8,756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,018.99 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9249…4f16backed Rice | 47c | 13,380$6,267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,267.05 | 100 | 46%46 W · 54 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2f…eca9backed Rice | 48c | 10,000$4,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,800 | 95 | 40%38 W · 57 L | -6.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Rice | 48c | 10,000$4,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,800 | 272 | 46%125 W · 147 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9af…6371backed Memphis | 53c | 7,002$3,711 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,290.89 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Memphis | 52c | 6,119$3,182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,937.15 | 89 | 48.3%43 W · 46 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Memphis | 51c | 5,598$2,858 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,739.77 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…9ed3backed Rice | 49c | 3,061$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb2…a656backed Rice | 49c | 2,041$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.09 | 115 | 40%46 W · 69 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a70cbacked Memphis | 53c | 1,887$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$886.79 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86a3…33dbbacked Memphis | 54c | 1,500$810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$690 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Rice | 47c | 1,008$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.76 | 859 | 47.7%410 W · 449 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Memphis | 54c | 566$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.36 | 818 | 47.9%392 W · 426 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Memphis | 53c | 300$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…f2bcbacked Memphis | 52c | 299.99$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c2…4de7backed Rice | 48c | 270$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.6 | 157 | 34.4%54 W · 103 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf36f…fb15backed Memphis | 52c | 210$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.8 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -4.7wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -26%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe941…0a95backed Rice | 49c | 203.01$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Memphis | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Memphis | 55c | 182$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.14 | 342 | 50.3%172 W · 170 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x258e…d16cbacked Rice | 48c | 156.25$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 174 | 50%87 W · 87 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Rice | 46c | 151.15$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.43 | 756 | 51.9%392 W · 364 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1321…2286backed Rice | 45c | 150$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Memphis | 53c | 119.43$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.13 | 381 | 42.5%162 W · 219 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Memphis | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 113 | 54.9%62 W · 51 L | +7.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2738…6412backed Memphis | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Rice | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 219 | 41.6%91 W · 128 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Rice | 48c | 80.28$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.15 | 80 | 40%32 W · 48 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Memphis | 51c | 53.86$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.39 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Rice | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 241 | 57.3%138 W · 103 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd774…82cdbacked Rice | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 160 | 50%80 W · 80 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Rice | 49c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 542 | 43.2%234 W · 308 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00e6…3d22backed Memphis | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Memphis (-13.5)this page
- Memphis vs. RiceMemphis won
- Memphis vs. Rice: O/U 48.5Over won
- O/U 49.5Over won
- Spread: Memphis (-14.5)Memphis won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.