Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on April 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8adf6ba0eb89585ea8acfa4b8cc2ac2612056dae8a2358d5683181940aa981c1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,380
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,278
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,380 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 7c | 1,469$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.99 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 32c | 342.13$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.39 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 59c | 338$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.58 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 14c | 299.84$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.47 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 71c | 193.55$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.01 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 37c | 159.09$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.66 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 8c | 150.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 35c | 144.1$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.08 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 15c | 110.09$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b07…e4c5backed Yes | 34c | 105.44$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.09 | 87 | 48.3%42 W · 45 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 73c | 101.88$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.48 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8f…de8abacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 166 | 26.5%44 W · 122 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked No | 65c | 96.23$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8a…9362backed Yes | 24c | 96.06$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.37 | 75 | 29.3%22 W · 53 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 27c | 95.49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.33 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 80c | 90$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.18 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 77c | 82.13$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.73 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab08…8825backed No | 74c | 78.81$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.13 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb964…927fbacked Yes | 17c | 73.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 183 | 27.3%50 W · 133 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x362f…b8eabacked Yes | 31c | 72.14$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 41c | 69.83$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.36 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x692b…4532backed No | 55c | 61.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.9 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 31c | 54.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…95a7backed Yes | 35c | 54.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 240 | 29.2%70 W · 170 L | -15.8wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 53.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7280…65d2backed Yes | 38c | 53.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 71c | 52$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0066…20a1backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 88 | 65.9%58 W · 30 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40fd…9f9fbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 111 | 45%50 W · 61 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 71c | 49.73$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.38 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 70c | 46.93$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda5f…75e1backed Yes | 33c | 42.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed No | 73c | 40.01$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.82 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8473…5511backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 91 | 28.6%26 W · 65 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 36c | 39.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 32c | 35.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 59c | 33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 71c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed No | 75c | 26.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed Yes | 41c | 25.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 68c | 16.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 65c | 15.39$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on April 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 24°C on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on April 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.