Tennis · resolved market
Heilbronn: Marko Topo vs Emilio Nava
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8ae2e8a227fcc2c7d9b9813df07e58825d16c01142618f6bd2917cb988bd764e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Emilio Navaof Marko Topo, Emilio Nava
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,336
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,385
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,336 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Marko Topo | 15c | 3,311$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.46 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…a5d6backed Emilio Nava | 77c | 3,232$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$732.44 | 504 | 58.9%297 W · 207 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Marko Topo | 14c | 2,175$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.69 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa664…f849backed Marko Topo | 22c | 1,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 856 | 34.2%293 W · 563 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7932…5b38backed Emilio Nava | 77c | 986.36$759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.86 | 361 | 57.1%206 W · 155 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32b4…8b21backed Marko Topo | 23c | 984.34$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.59 | 3,605 | 42.4%1,530 W · 2,075 L | -43.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccd8…f4debacked Marko Topo | 24c | 911.17$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.68 | 1,475 | 35.2%519 W · 956 L | -14.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74bd…d371backed Marko Topo | 14c | 822.08$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.86 | 421 | 25.7%108 W · 313 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36d8…c7c7backed Marko Topo | 24c | 777$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.48 | 1,228 | 41.1%505 W · 723 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa23c…ae92backed Emilio Nava | 78c | 705.46$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.46 | 179 | 59.8%107 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9762…73fbbacked Emilio Nava | 78c | 512.82$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.82 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 77cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6e…542dbacked Emilio Nava | 71c | 418.94$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.49 | 197 | 56.3%111 W · 86 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Marko Topo | 8c | 398.63$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.58 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Marko Topo | 23c | 392$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.16 | 342 | 42.4%145 W · 197 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Marko Topo | 22c | 357.11$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.56 | 3,256 | 48.2%1,570 W · 1,686 L | -53.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Marko Topo | 15c | 308.8$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.46 | 1,062 | 42%446 W · 616 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Marko Topo | 25c | 284.59$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.81 | 1,541 | 49.2%758 W · 783 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Marko Topo | 22c | 263.63$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.58 | 3,901 | 50.1%1,953 W · 1,948 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Marko Topo | 5c | 257$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ade…ed94backed Emilio Nava | 77c | 256.41$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.97 | 1,458 | 54%787 W · 671 L | -33.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc982…c998backed Marko Topo | 5c | 215$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.38per pick | 28cpaid | +70.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…206cbacked Marko Topo | 30c | 204.92$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.66 | 856 | 37.7%323 W · 533 L | +7.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Marko Topo | 9c | 198.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 3,661 | 45.2%1,654 W · 2,007 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22c7…d814backed Emilio Nava | 77c | 155.46$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.46 | 405 | 54.1%219 W · 186 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe46c…8526backed Marko Topo | 10c | 137.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc75f…d7f6backed Emilio Nava | 74c | 128.38$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.38 | 207 | 64.7%134 W · 73 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc7…2a87backed Emilio Nava | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e36…86c7backed Marko Topo | 14c | 122$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ac6…e020backed Emilio Nava | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 347 | 61.1%212 W · 135 L | -10.5wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Marko Topo | 23c | 99.21$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.82 | 587 | 45.7%268 W · 319 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5983…3b92backed Marko Topo | 24c | 97.21$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.33 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Emilio Nava | 75c | 96.13$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.03 | 1,421 | 55%782 W · 639 L | +23.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0813…41e1backed Emilio Nava | 76c | 89.98$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 371 | 58.8%218 W · 153 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf970…f7f6backed Marko Topo | 24c | 83.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.11 | 2,485 | 35.9%893 W · 1,592 L | -28.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Marko Topo | 22c | 75.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 1,250 | 44.7%559 W · 691 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…6435backed Emilio Nava | 61c | 75$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.25 | 1,148 | 53%608 W · 540 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x429e…41bdbacked Emilio Nava | 76c | 74.74$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.94 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x400d…e759backed Emilio Nava | 76c | 73.92$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 608 | 56.6%344 W · 264 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ea…42e8backed Emilio Nava | 72c | 73.87$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.94 | 898 | 59.7%536 W · 362 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x985d…33c9backed Marko Topo | 22c | 71.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,300 | 36.9%480 W · 820 L | -34.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54d1…13f4backed Marko Topo | 18c | 67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 737 | 48%354 W · 383 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc03e…c482backed Emilio Nava | 77c | 65.45$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a311backed Marko Topo | 32c | 56.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 117 | 35.9%42 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec79…1e2abacked Marko Topo | 24c | 50.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…7819backed Marko Topo | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1,882 | 35.5%669 W · 1,213 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Emilio Nava | 77c | 45.05$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 2,343 | 51.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L | +95.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Marko Topo | 23c | 45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 547 | 46.8%256 W · 291 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Marko Topo | 27c | 43.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 2,418 | 51.7%1,249 W · 1,169 L | +10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddf5…aaa3backed Emilio Nava | 77c | 42.86$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 692 | 53.3%369 W · 323 L | -10.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a4…3926backed Emilio Nava | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 593 | 66.8%396 W · 197 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Emilio Nava | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 423 | 53.7%227 W · 196 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bb…1507backed Emilio Nava | 77c | 30.2$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9565…ec9abacked Emilio Nava | 77c | 27.27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 180 | 38.3%69 W · 111 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae45…96b9backed Emilio Nava | 75c | 14.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.53 | 752 | 62%466 W · 286 L | +25.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.