Serie A · resolved market
Genoa CFC vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8b13fde82853244cc846c21df235e2f2c9a7b57151a2e2921f5341c23ed5ba73
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,974
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,315
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,974 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 67c | 15,392$10,352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,352.01 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 31c | 12,493$3,863 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,629.96 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2af2…ec6fbacked Over | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0666…d31abacked Over | 54c | 933.33$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.33 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90a5…9dccbacked Over | 32c | 781.2$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.22 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +9.1wins | +0.26per pick | 46cpaid | +65.9%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Over | 31c | 650$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.5 | 168 | 42.9%72 W · 96 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 80c | 357.46$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.97 | 985 | 44.9%442 W · 543 L | -17.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…b85fbacked Over | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.5 | 88 | 63.6%56 W · 32 L | +16.1wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 20c | 307.69$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.15 | 331 | 44.7%148 W · 183 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked Over | 49c | 269.61$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.5 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe16c…9d62backed Under | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 61cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 80c | 228.32$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.66 | 910 | 43.3%394 W · 516 L | -14.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Over | 20c | 197.1$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.68 | 98 | 26.5%26 W · 72 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad7…c097backed Over | 20c | 116$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.8 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9487…54bbbacked Over | 20c | 75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6339…141ebacked Over | 58c | 75$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 63c | 68.3$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.27 | 180 | 55%99 W · 81 L | +15.9wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2a73…c2e5backed Over | 63c | 43.65$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 70 | 65.7%46 W · 24 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 57c | 42$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.11 | 467 | 42.8%200 W · 267 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 527 | 48%253 W · 274 L | -35.4wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Over | 58c | 33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 118 | 56.8%67 W · 51 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc482…b505backed Under | 52c | 31.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa776…a17bbacked Over | 50c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 59c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 114 | 60.5%69 W · 45 L | +14.9wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x392c…0bb4backed Over | 59c | 20.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Genoa CFC vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 3.5this page
- Genoa CFC vs. Bologna FC 1909: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Genoa CFC vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 1.5Over won
- Genoa CFC vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 2.5Over won
- Genoa CFC vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 4.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.