Serie A · resolved market
Genoa CFC vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc7a20144059657e5eb9ae7bd6fedd6c0f88b246344c023b519b7a23ad8b3e3d4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,667
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,117
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,667 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 40c | 9,990$3,996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,994.13 | 205 | 44.9%92 W · 113 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 59c | 6,932$4,074 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,074.15 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Under | 60c | 4,000$2,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,400 | 210 | 58.6%123 W · 87 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 59c | 3,397$2,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,001.48 | 932 | 52%485 W · 447 L | +11.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 41c | 2,942$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,741.85 | 387 | 44.7%173 W · 214 L | -10.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…d4debacked Over | 41c | 1,220$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720.39 | 216 | 50.5%109 W · 107 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 60c | 1,219$729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$729.03 | 985 | 44.9%442 W · 543 L | -17.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Over | 41c | 1,200$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$707.93 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 54c | 774$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.96 | 467 | 42.8%200 W · 267 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Over | 36c | 650$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416 | 168 | 42.9%72 W · 96 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…9186backed Over | 40c | 513.78$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.27 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 59c | 400$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236 | 405 | 49.6%201 W · 204 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Under | 61c | 400$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244 | 314 | 41.4%130 W · 184 L | -11.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd85…6a32backed Under | 61c | 228.97$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.67 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -5.9wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -32%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Under | 55c | 180.09$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.23 | 592 | 40.7%241 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 40c | 151.89$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.13 | 331 | 44.7%148 W · 183 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Under | 60c | 124.79$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.87 | 164 | 48.8%80 W · 84 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 45c | 111.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.49 | 142 | 31%44 W · 98 L | -10.3wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 59c | 100.91$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.94 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 455 | 47%214 W · 241 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over | 28c | 82$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.11 | 284 | 45.4%129 W · 155 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc519…348abacked Under | 54c | 80$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 150 | 41.3%62 W · 88 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b2d…379dbacked Over | 41c | 73.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.17 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Over | 46c | 73$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.63 | 118 | 56.8%67 W · 51 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 60c | 72.09$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.96 | 910 | 43.3%394 W · 516 L | -14.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeee2…035dbacked Over | 38c | 54.34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.69 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | +6.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked Over | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 83 | 57.8%48 W · 35 L | +8.8wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Under | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 107 | 44.9%48 W · 59 L | -9.8wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x79df…1661backed Over | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 120 | 33.3%40 W · 80 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7e…c230backed Over | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 113 | 48.7%55 W · 58 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Over | 39c | 42.67$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.03 | 366 | 30.9%113 W · 253 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Over | 39c | 40.12$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 397 | 40.6%161 W · 236 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81dc…45a1backed Under | 60c | 36.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 46c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 114 | 60.5%69 W · 45 L | +14.9wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Under | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 147 | 40.8%60 W · 87 L | -14.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 39c | 27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.47 | 176 | 51.7%91 W · 85 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 61c | 26.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 527 | 48%253 W · 274 L | -35.4wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d49…5ecebacked Under | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -4.3wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Genoa CFC vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 2.5this page
- Genoa CFC vs. Bologna FC 1909: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Genoa CFC vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 1.5Over won
- Genoa CFC vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 3.5Over won
- Genoa CFC vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 4.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.