NBA · resolved market
Jazz vs. Pistons: O/U 231.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8b20593fac20031eeb09bfabc18b81f12214735a264f22ae33fae32e9f85d567
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,288
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,336
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,288 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0cb6…3009backed Under | 51c | 20,000$10,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,800 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 49c | 9,939$4,870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,870 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Over | 49c | 8,869$4,355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,354.93 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Over | 53c | 4,000$2,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,120 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 51c | 3,428$1,758 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,670.15 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Over | 49c | 1,002$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.98 | 474 | 48.7%231 W · 243 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Over | 49c | 800.01$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392 | 418 | 48.3%202 W · 216 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Over | 52c | 770$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.09 | 857 | 42.6%365 W · 492 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 49c | 555$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.95 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Over | 49c | 357$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.93 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Under | 47c | 329.08$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.41 | 950 | 49.4%469 W · 481 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Over | 55c | 190.91$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 88 | 50%44 W · 44 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa774…005fbacked Under | 52c | 139$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.53 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Over | 48c | 120$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 471 | 44.2%208 W · 263 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c13…99b7backed Under | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 477 | 38.2%182 W · 295 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…8accbacked Under | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 358 | 51.7%185 W · 173 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d28…932abacked Under | 47c | 80$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.4 | 248 | 35.1%87 W · 161 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 50c | 69.78$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.11 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70df…bca8backed Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 327 | 50.2%164 W · 163 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7096…11c0backed Over | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b6c…b161backed Over | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Jazz vs. Pistons: O/U 231.5this page
- Jazz vs. PistonsPistons won
- Jazz vs. Pistons: 1H MoneylineJazz won
- Jazz vs. Pistons: 1H O/U 111.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Pistons: O/U 230.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Pistons: O/U 232.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Pistons: O/U 233.5Under won
- Spread: Pistons (-10.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Pistons (-11.5)Jazz won
- Spread: Pistons (-9.5)Pistons won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.