NBA · resolved market

Spread: Pistons (-10.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1032cda70e468cef26015dbdde4b9b0599d886f8fc63c7c94d292a7a27c1e567

Rebuilt 11 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Pistonsof Pistons, Jazz
Resolved: Nov 5, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $64,554
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $65,244

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,554 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xc3c3…eec8backed Jazz	52c	25,000$13,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13,000	382	48.7%186 W · 196 L	+13.9wins	+0.04per pick	45cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc350…3669backed Pistons	48c	21,915$10,519 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11,395.8	148	56.1%83 W · 65 L	+5.2wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Pistons	49c	9,659$4,781 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,878.43	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc9af…6371backed Pistons	48c	6,251$3,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,250.52	40	35%14 W · 26 L	-5.7wins	-0.14per pick	49cpaid	-28.8%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Jazz	50c	5,795$2,902 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,902.15	1,139	48.3%550 W · 589 L	+3.5wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Jazz	52c	5,515$2,893 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,893.03	662	50.8%336 W · 326 L	+15.7wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x900c…1d7abacked Pistons	48c	3,960$1,899 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,061.15	710	52.1%370 W · 340 L	+11.9wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Jazz	52c	3,933$2,026 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,025.84	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed Pistons	46c	3,000$1,380 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,619.96	477	48.8%233 W · 244 L	+1.8wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x83b9…6124backed Pistons	50c	2,157$1,079 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,078.5	361	48.5%175 W · 186 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed Pistons	47c	2,000$940 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,060	180	47.8%86 W · 94 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Jazz	53c	2,000$1,060 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,060	297	48.1%143 W · 154 L	-7.4wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Jazz	51c	1,883$961 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$961.46	3,285	49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L	+5.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Jazz	52c	1,553$808 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$807.54	2,736	46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L	-67.4wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Pistons	47c	1,377$650 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$726.45	2,265	43.4%982 W · 1,283 L	-26.7wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xabf5…cfebbacked Jazz	52c	1,164$605 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$605.22	480	54.2%260 W · 220 L	+14.0wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb52d…95ffbacked Jazz	53c	1,143$606 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$606	10	50%5 W · 5 L	-0.5wins	-0.05per pick	55cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Jazz	54c	1,063$577 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$577.14	857	42.6%365 W · 492 L	-15.6wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Jazz	52c	1,000$520 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$520	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7fa…44e5backed Jazz	55c	909.24$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	-2.4wins	-0.17per pick	46cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc996…bb65backed Pistons	44c	759.43$336 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$423.31	471	44.2%208 W · 263 L	-10.1wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5fb1…cc29backed Pistons	49c	640$314 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$326.4	23	56.5%13 W · 10 L	+2.0wins	+0.09per pick	48cpaid	+8.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8edc…3a70backed Jazz	51c	640$326 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$326.4	20	50%10 W · 10 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5388…4d5abacked Pistons	48c	600$288 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$312	37	32.4%12 W · 25 L	-5.6wins	-0.15per pick	47cpaid	-39.5%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3854…862dbacked Pistons	48c	489.29$235 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$254.43	60	55%33 W · 27 L	+1.5wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6884…6ccfbacked Pistons	49c	453.06$222 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$231.06	390	51.5%201 W · 189 L	-5.1wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Pistons	46c	330$152 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$178.2	2,435	49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L	+30.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf38…a59bbacked Jazz	52c	300$156 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$156	418	48.3%202 W · 216 L	-7.0wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x45d6…36cbbacked Jazz	52c	278.85$145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$145	245	33.9%83 W · 162 L	-19.1wins	-0.08per pick	42cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5f85…7e17backed Pistons	48c	260.42$125 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$135.42	66	56.1%37 W · 29 L	+4.0wins	+0.06per pick	50cpaid	+85.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Pistons	48c	259$124 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$134.68	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7b3…f97cbacked Pistons	48c	208.33$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$108.33	51	51%26 W · 25 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd99…f375backed Pistons	51c	193$98 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$94.57	381	51.2%195 W · 186 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x350e…6539backed Jazz	52c	192.31$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	144	50%72 W · 72 L	+2.6wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x27ca…2c36backed Jazz	54c	188.89$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102	67	52.2%35 W · 32 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e0b…cd84backed Pistons	46c	150$69 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$81	123	42.3%52 W · 71 L	-6.9wins	-0.06per pick	48cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x15e3…009fbacked Jazz	52c	100$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52	373	57.4%214 W · 159 L	+7.5wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	+4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb43…9d70backed Jazz	54c	92.59$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	89	36%32 W · 57 L	-6.7wins	-0.08per pick	44cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0b25…cd02backed Jazz	54c	92.41$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.9	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.54per pick	54cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b91…ae77backed Pistons	48c	83.33$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.33	10	30%3 W · 7 L	+0.4wins	+0.04per pick	26cpaid	+49%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5dd…490bbacked Pistons	50c	72$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36	126	54.8%69 W · 57 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	56cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe45d…f77ebacked Jazz	52c	67.31$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	253	36.8%93 W · 160 L	-10.2wins	-0.04per pick	41cpaid	-15%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x776b…d53ebacked Pistons	50c	60.56$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.28	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	0%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x925e…ae34backed Jazz	52c	60.54$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.48	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.19per pick	53cpaid	-37.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f1f…f5eabacked Pistons	50c	60$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30	28	39.3%11 W · 17 L	-1.8wins	-0.06per pick	46cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc5cb…9c55backed Jazz	53c	57.02$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	77	46.8%36 W · 41 L	-2.9wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x162e…94a4backed Jazz	53c	56.6$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	23	30.4%7 W · 16 L	-4.7wins	-0.20per pick	51cpaid	-39.9%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x1182…b6bbbacked Pistons	50c	50$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25	12	58.3%7 W · 5 L	+0.5wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	+10.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5cfe…ed69backed Jazz	52c	50$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	388	45.6%177 W · 211 L	-4.8wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a5c…b3f2backed Pistons	50c	48.86$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.4	327	43.4%142 W · 185 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdcaf…3ca6backed Jazz	53c	47.17$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	45	42.2%19 W · 26 L	-2.7wins	-0.06per pick	48cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x17a3…8dadbacked Jazz	53c	37.74$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	42	35.7%15 W · 27 L	-6.7wins	-0.16per pick	52cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xe117…264dbacked Jazz	53c	37.74$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-1.7wins	-0.24per pick	52cpaid	-53.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9816…28a7backed Jazz	53c	37.74$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	37	40.5%15 W · 22 L	-2.3wins	-0.06per pick	47cpaid	+11.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdf02…38b9backed Jazz	54c	37.04$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	48	47.9%23 W · 25 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x81c8…97b8backed Jazz	54c	37.04$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	14	21.4%3 W · 11 L	-2.7wins	-0.20per pick	41cpaid	-61.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2325…3256backed Jazz	55c	36.36$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	20	55%11 W · 9 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+6.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbcaf…632bbacked Pistons	50c	34.36$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.18	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.18per pick	51cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbe9…5b7abacked Jazz	52c	33.94$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.65	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.1wins	-0.53per pick	53cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Jazz	53c	31.7$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.8	824	42.2%348 W · 476 L	-3.7wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbf2a…9739backed Pistons	47c	31.7$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.8	15	73.3%11 W · 4 L	+2.4wins	+0.16per pick	57cpaid	+36.5%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc081…f7c7backed Jazz	53c	31.68$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.79	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-1.4wins	-0.14per pick	44cpaid	-1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7486…1f27backed Jazz	55c	30$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.5	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-4.2wins	-0.46per pick	46cpaid	-100%equal weight	36-0.12 edge/pick
0x2337…3a2cbacked Jazz	53c	28.3$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	27	55.6%15 W · 12 L	+2.8wins	+0.10per pick	45cpaid	+50.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf3e1…61edbacked Jazz	53c	28.3$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	36	38.9%14 W · 22 L	-3.2wins	-0.09per pick	48cpaid	-11.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Jazz	52c	22.24$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.54	597	43.6%260 W · 337 L	-11.9wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Pistons	48c	20.75$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.69	474	48.7%231 W · 243 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x01fa…c2edbacked Jazz	53c	20$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.6	174	47.7%83 W · 91 L	-5.2wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c96…3485backed Pistons	50c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	6	50%3 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.08per pick	58cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x18de…0b64backed Pistons	50c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	50	60%30 W · 20 L	+1.4wins	+0.03per pick	57cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Pistons (-10.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event