NHL · resolved market
Red Wings vs. Jets: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8b2c2e11fc267a398269b6635fbbca3c99421628b3ad1b150adfbeb464dc3247
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,617
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,728
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,617 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaf35…b5eabacked Over | 43c | 6,834$2,938 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,937.95 | 114 | 45.6%52 W · 62 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Under | 57c | 6,529$3,722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,807.47 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Under | 59c | 4,923$2,898 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,025.28 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 41c | 2,093$858 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$858.2 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed2c…9597backed Over | 41c | 2,000$820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$820 | 333 | 45.6%152 W · 181 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb19f…dd0ebacked Under | 62c | 1,013$625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.51 | 56 | 60.7%34 W · 22 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…d2ccbacked Over | 42c | 358$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.36 | 470 | 51.5%242 W · 228 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Over | 41c | 313.85$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.68 | 360 | 38.6%139 W · 221 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 36c | 296.59$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.61 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Over | 5c | 251.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 182 | 62.1%113 W · 69 L | +15.6wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed Over | 42c | 240$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 104 | 38.5%40 W · 64 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed Over | 30c | 184.93$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.48 | 210 | 40.5%85 W · 125 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Over | 42c | 181$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.02 | 849 | 53.8%457 W · 392 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 37c | 147.24$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.48 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 57c | 104.34$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.87 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1e0…9f88backed Under | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a38…adcebacked Under | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf3…f535backed Over | 43c | 88.4$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.01 | 115 | 57.4%66 W · 49 L | +7.2wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8e…b505backed Over | 38c | 82.64$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.4 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd6…16abbacked Under | 58c | 70$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 308 | 59.4%183 W · 125 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 41c | 48.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 451 | 51.2%231 W · 220 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0501…61ecbacked Under | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 145 | 42.8%62 W · 83 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd5…0acbbacked Under | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 57cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Under | 74c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Red Wings vs. Jets: O/U 6.5this page
- Red Wings vs. JetsRed Wings won
- Red Wings vs. Jets: O/U 5.5Over won
- Spread: Jets (-1.5)Red Wings won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.