Tennis · resolved market
ITF Tokyo: Ryuki Matsuda vs Yuto Oki
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8b2c3b497c2020a429eac71b941e1102dd0aabd764f9a77fc92aa3eb4be7b8f9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yuto Okiof Ryuki Matsuda, Yuto Oki
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,814
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,209
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,814 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc07d…b1dfbacked Yuto Oki | 57c | 6,324$3,625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,699.86 | 2,383 | 55.6%1,326 W · 1,057 L | +49.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc92…649dbacked Ryuki Matsuda | 18c | 1,363$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 91 | 18.7%17 W · 74 L | -5.6wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d7…47a4backed Ryuki Matsuda | 60c | 815.6$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.36 | 1,023 | 41.3%422 W · 601 L | -24.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Ryuki Matsuda | 41c | 735.93$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.4 | 1,175 | 52.9%622 W · 553 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Ryuki Matsuda | 43c | 672.45$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.69 | 1,767 | 52.1%920 W · 847 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Ryuki Matsuda | 42c | 650$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.7 | 2,082 | 52.3%1,088 W · 994 L | +19.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…c3bdbacked Ryuki Matsuda | 41c | 630.58$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.99 | 923 | 52.5%485 W · 438 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Ryuki Matsuda | 41c | 599.99$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.99 | 1,349 | 49.8%672 W · 677 L | -6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a80…11c5backed Ryuki Matsuda | 40c | 561.39$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.93 | 739 | 51.7%382 W · 357 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Ryuki Matsuda | 57c | 472.53$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.06 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeab…9cd0backed Ryuki Matsuda | 19c | 361.75$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.62 | 504 | 42.7%215 W · 289 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47f6…b051backed Ryuki Matsuda | 44c | 300$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 416 | 44.5%185 W · 231 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Yuto Oki | 42c | 298.38$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.38 | 1,266 | 34.2%433 W · 833 L | -43.2wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Ryuki Matsuda | 11c | 252.78$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.22 | 4,921 | 38.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L | -20.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8649…ba57backed Yuto Oki | 40c | 246.95$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.95 | 796 | 46%366 W · 430 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Ryuki Matsuda | 44c | 239.99$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.61 | 1,725 | 52.2%901 W · 824 L | -8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…7475backed Yuto Oki | 50c | 220.48$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.24 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Yuto Oki | 46c | 202.89$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.56 | 5,261 | 28.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L | -19.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Ryuki Matsuda | 60c | 164$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.4 | 1,822 | 41%747 W · 1,075 L | -30.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Ryuki Matsuda | 55c | 159.8$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.5 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Ryuki Matsuda | 45c | 145.96$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.3 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31e7…fe2abacked Ryuki Matsuda | 26c | 126.92$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1,356 | 38.3%520 W · 836 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae8e…08f9backed Ryuki Matsuda | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 116 | 53.4%62 W · 54 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721c…d585backed Ryuki Matsuda | 51c | 97.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.01 | 131 | 57.3%75 W · 56 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9825…9ffcbacked Yuto Oki | 39c | 76.92$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.92 | 499 | 43.5%217 W · 282 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e50…4b22backed Ryuki Matsuda | 52c | 67.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 354 | 57.3%203 W · 151 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba1a…85febacked Yuto Oki | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 726 | 51.8%376 W · 350 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6b…ec86backed Ryuki Matsuda | 53c | 54.72$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1,062 | 31.8%338 W · 724 L | -27.2wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Yuto Oki | 41c | 50.2$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.62 | 1,276 | 61%778 W · 498 L | +27.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Yuto Oki | 45c | 50.05$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.68 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61fa…7f62backed Yuto Oki | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 464 | 53%246 W · 218 L | -10.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef1…5acabacked Ryuki Matsuda | 54c | 44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 1,794 | 60.2%1,080 W · 714 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Yuto Oki | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 2,151 | 37.3%802 W · 1,349 L | -27.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Ryuki Matsuda | 48c | 38.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 1,149 | 41.3%474 W · 675 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7497…18cebacked Yuto Oki | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Ryuki Matsuda | 46c | 38.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…6e9bbacked Yuto Oki | 40c | 35.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.02 | 282 | 49.3%139 W · 143 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2a…0a73backed Ryuki Matsuda | 54c | 34.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 940 | 58.4%549 W · 391 L | +21.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x349e…867bbacked Yuto Oki | 45c | 33.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 753 | 50.5%380 W · 373 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Yuto Oki | 48c | 29.71$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.55 | 1,234 | 46.3%571 W · 663 L | +8.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed Ryuki Matsuda | 46c | 28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 920 | 46.6%429 W · 491 L | -14.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e43…ea02backed Ryuki Matsuda | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f85…e91abacked Ryuki Matsuda | 56c | 18.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 243 | 49.4%120 W · 123 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38ab…75ffbacked Yuto Oki | 57c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.