Lol · resolved market
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8b494ec9f29a60f4ce5615ae9e22e9e2fbd8f5f1b5a5be262b89a2452581ce8b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,313
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,737
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,313 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Under | 44c | 1,000$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 3,584 | 40.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L | +31.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbe…dc24backed Over | 56c | 797.09$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.44 | 166 | 46.4%77 W · 89 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28a3…f681backed Over | 52c | 499.99$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 370 | 39.5%146 W · 224 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6c…7e66backed Over | 52c | 478.45$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.66 | 126 | 42.9%54 W · 72 L | -7.6wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe015…6ffdbacked Over | 56c | 403.18$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.4 | 960 | 48.8%468 W · 492 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93f4…ea90backed Under | 45c | 370$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.5 | 1,110 | 49%544 W · 566 L | +42.0wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeef9…8731backed Over | 54c | 297.38$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.51 | 347 | 56.5%196 W · 151 L | +12.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Under | 13c | 199.56$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.82 | 223 | 36.8%82 W · 141 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb3e…db66backed Under | 45c | 143.24$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.46 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x774f…3ce7backed Over | 69c | 130.43$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37b2…8681backed Under | 31c | 129.96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.36 | 961 | 49.9%480 W · 481 L | +4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d21…92e5backed Under | 49c | 104.67$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.29 | 698 | 41.8%292 W · 406 L | +46.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca0…38babacked Under | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,443 | 43.4%626 W · 817 L | +105.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbeca…a1b7backed Over | 51c | 98.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.21 | 108 | 51.9%56 W · 52 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab5…db66backed Under | 48c | 72.92$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Under | 48c | 70.39$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.79 | 1,098 | 34.8%382 W · 716 L | -17.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…a2bebacked Under | 46c | 69$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.74 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15fc…fec7backed Under | 44c | 68.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 152 | 53.9%82 W · 70 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5151…645cbacked Over | 55c | 61.49$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.9 | 454 | 44.3%201 W · 253 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c33…e0dabacked Under | 51c | 58.8$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa73a…27d9backed Under | 46c | 54.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 396 | 52%206 W · 190 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7029…1136backed Over | 51c | 31.68$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.52 | 166 | 45.8%76 W · 90 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2405…e055backed Over | 49c | 31.68$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.16 | 166 | 54.2%90 W · 76 L | +7.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?this page
- First Blood in Game 1?EDward Gaming won
- First Blood in Game 2?EDward Gaming won
- Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5)EDward Gaming won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
- LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group AscendBilibili Gaming won
- LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 WinnerEDward Gaming won
- LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 WinnerBilibili Gaming won
- Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1?Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 2?Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.