Movies · resolved market
'Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire' over $80m opening weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8b9b13520742358bd500fcce85498f92d6c08c262341c4ef20e760ec2609ccdf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,776
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,200
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,776 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa357…1045backed No | 1c | 12,552$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.04 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 13cpaid | -93%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed No | 45c | 5,182$2,335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,334.52 | 177 | 51.4%91 W · 86 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe94…da00backed No | 1c | 4,027$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked No | 40c | 2,389$963 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$963.38 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd279…e09dbacked Yes | 54c | 1,929$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$889.5 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +3.7wins | +0.26per pick | 31cpaid | +102.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d6…f3bdbacked Yes | 57c | 1,328$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$577.67 | 88 | 40.9%36 W · 52 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes | 63c | 949$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.54 | 163 | 50.3%82 W · 81 L | +24.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Yes | 68c | 882.14$602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.89 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ee…ec14backed Yes | 68c | 875$591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.82 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x033d…af05backed Yes | 32c | 722.38$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.01 | 131 | 50.4%66 W · 65 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d2…d6d2backed No | 66c | 653$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.25 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda44…2b09backed No | 40c | 599.91$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.41 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed No | 26c | 570.31$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.85 | 166 | 14.5%24 W · 142 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba73…0cfdbacked No | 37c | 536$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.09 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +9.6wins | +0.17per pick | 27cpaid | +60.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 14c | 337.45$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.24 | 129 | 23.3%30 W · 99 L | -7.3wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4aff…c594backed Yes | 75c | 265.84$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.85 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a27…d1e3backed Yes | 57c | 263.16$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081d…8c34backed Yes | 63c | 243.08$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.32 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 75c | 234.44$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.52 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed No | 62c | 200$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c3…1f5fbacked Yes | 62c | 200$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb623…d92cbacked Yes | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fbe…7d07backed Yes | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2158…fe65backed Yes | 63c | 94.55$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.55 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 69cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x290e…5d54backed Yes | 59c | 76.51$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde7d…a540backed Yes | 54c | 71.82$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67a9…6610backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda7c…c259backed No | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4616…e881backed No | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea03…0aa1backed Yes | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb5…a15cbacked Yes | 59c | 39.34$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17fc…2b02backed No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac69…84f2backed Yes | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.